Kasımpaşa 3 - 2 FT Fatih Karagümrük

Kasımpaşa race away, then cling on as Karagümrük wake up too late

Worth Watching Futmetrix Score: 65/100. In a tense relegation scrap at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa built a 3-0 lead then held on by their fingernails, landing a huge blow to Karagümrük’s survival hopes.

Opening Act: Kasımpaşa strike first, then sit in

This looked like a slow-burner, but the early challenges and constant fouls screamed high Intensity. Rather than chasing the ball, Kasımpaşa let Fatih Karagümrük have it and waited for the mistake. The first real opening on 19 minutes was ruthlessly punished: M. Ben Ouanes picked his head up on the left and cut the ball back to K. Demirbay, who swept home from the edge of the box. From there, the pattern hardened. Karagümrük controlled possession but lacked incision in the final third, while Kasımpaşa’s compact shape and readiness to foul broke any rhythm. On the surface the Balance of the play seemed tilted towards the away side, but the scoreboard told a different story. It felt like the kind of attritional relegation battle where one side understands the street-fight better than the other.

The Pivot: Irfan Can raises the ceiling

After the break, Karagümrük pushed higher, tidier in their passing and sharper around the box, but still without that final touch. That’s when the game’s key shift arrived. A quick Kasımpaşa transition released the right side, the cross found C. Tosun in the area on 62 minutes, and he finished calmly — with I. C. Kahveci providing the composed assist. The Stakes suddenly felt huge: 2-0 down, Karagümrük looked stunned. Nine minutes later the same protagonist delivered the decisive punch. A. Benedyczak linked play, slipped Kahveci into space in the box, and he drilled in for 3-0. That one moment of quality in combination play reset the game’s true Balance; Kasımpaşa were brutally efficient, turning limited attacks into a seemingly unassailable scoreline while Karagümrük’s sterile domination was exposed.

Resolution: subs light the fuse, but too late

At 3-0 most matches drift; this one escalated. The Intensity climbed again as Karagümrük’s bench finally changed the feel. On 80 minutes S. Larsson, operating wide, whipped a teasing cross to the back post where F. Mladenovic arrived to head in and ignite belief. Suddenly the Upset Factor hovered over Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, not because Karagümrük were favourites, but because a dead game had flickered back to life. In stoppage time, substitute D. Verde slid a clever ball into T. Ahmed, who made it 3-2 in the 90+2nd minute and turned the finale into a siege. Kasımpaşa, who had been aggressive all night, relied on pure desperation defending and endless fouls to drag the whistle closer. They escape with three priceless points, while Karagümrük’s late rally only underlines how costly their earlier passivity could be in the relegation battle.

Survival stakes in the shadow of the Bosphorus

Skip It Futmetrix Score: 31/100. Two struggling Istanbul sides collide in a genuine six-pointer, where control of the run-in and vital breathing space will belong to whoever handles the pressure better.

The Setup

On 16 February 2026, Kasimpasa and Fatih Karagumruk meet at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu with the lower reaches of the Süper Lig table in sharp focus. Kasimpasa sit 16th with just three wins from 20 and a five-game winless Form run. The most alarming detail: ten home matches, zero victories.

Karagumruk are even deeper in trouble in 18th, on 12 points from 21 games, with 15 defeats and a defence leaking goals at a worrying rate. A lone win amid four recent losses underlines their fragile Balance. This is not a glamour tie; it is a tense league grind where every loose touch and wayward clearance carries outsized consequences.

Key Battle

The defining contest will be Kasimpasa’s patient, possession-focused approach against Karagumruk’s more direct, transition-driven game. The hosts will try to pin Karagumruk back, circulating the ball around the box and relying on structured attacks to create chances. That approach, though, leaves space for the visitors to strike.

Karagumruk’s best route lies in quick turnovers, vertical passing and aggressive runs in behind, looking to drag Kasimpasa’s back line out of shape. If the home midfield fails to control second balls and counter-press effectively, Karagumruk can tilt the Balance of the match in a handful of attacks. Equally, the visitors’ disorganised back line will be tested by sustained pressure and set pieces, turning every dead ball into a mini-drama.

Our Prediction

The numbers give Kasimpasa a narrow edge, but an entirely winless home record makes them hard to trust. Karagumruk’s defensive chaos, meanwhile, stops them from fully capitalising on that vulnerability. Expect Kasimpasa to see more of the ball, squeeze the pitch and create a handful of clear chances, while Karagumruk wait for their moments to break. Nerves, not quality, will dictate the final stretch, with both sides likely to retreat into caution once the game levels out. Our predicted script: open enough to produce chances, but too tense for ruthless finishing. Kasimpasa 1-1 Fatih Karagumruk.