Trabzonspor 2 - 1 FT Kasımpaşa

Zubkov’s late strike shakes Papara Park

Highly Entertaining Futmetrix Score: 79/100. A late winner from Zubkov turned a tense night at Papara Park into a statement win that keeps Trabzonspor firmly on track in the European chase.

Opening Act: Control without the killer touch

The tempo in Trabzon rose steadily rather than exploding early. Trabzonspor controlled possession with 57%, circulating the ball through 499 passes and steadily tilting the Balance in their favour. Yet a modest xG underlined the lack of a ruthless edge in the box. At the heart of that measured build-up, Arseniy Batagov quietly dictated play from deep, keeping passing accuracy high and snuffing out counters before they truly formed. At the other end, Kasımpaşa leaned on Kerem Demirbay’s intelligence to spring forward in bursts. With only six shots, they chose their moments carefully in a match heavy on Intensity and season Stakes for a side hovering near the relegation battle. The opening 45 minutes felt like a tactical arm-wrestle, Trabzon asking questions but not quite prising the door open.

The Pivot: Super-subs flip the script

The real drama arrived after the interval. Introduced at half-time, P. Onuachu transformed Trabzonspor’s attack, and by the 51st minute he had his reward, powering in C. Inao Oulai’s cross to finally cash in on their territorial edge. The Balance seemed to tip decisively, but Kasımpaşa refused to fold. On 61 minutes, F. Diabate pounced on a clever pass from I. C. Kahveci, punishing a rare lapse at the back to drag the visitors level and heighten the Intensity. With the match finely poised and lead changes fuelling the tension, another substitution swung it again. Brought on in the 78th minute, A. Nwakaeme held the ball superbly on the left and slid it into Oleksandr Zubkov, who drilled home on 84 minutes. It was a classic super-sub assist and a clinical finish that shifted the match’s Stakes back towards the home side.

Resolution: Red card and a nervy finish

At 2-1 up, Trabzonspor focused on game management, using their grip on possession to keep the Balance tilted and slow Kasımpaşa’s late surge. The visitors, aware of their position near the bottom, pushed numbers forward, turning the closing stages into a high-risk, high-Intensity chase for an equaliser. Then came the final twist: in the 90th minute, Kerem Demirbay’s red card effectively ended their hopes of a late siege. With Kasımpaşa reduced to ten, Trabzonspor shepherded the ball into safe areas and saw out a win that carries clear Stakes for both ends of the table. For Trabzonspor, it reinforces momentum and keeps them firmly in the European picture. For Kasımpaşa, another narrow defeat deepens the pressure of an emerging relegation battle.

Trabzonspor turn the screw on shaky Kasımpaşa

Average Entertainment Futmetrix Score: 52/100. Trabzonspor’s push to cement the top spots collides with Kasımpaşa’s need to steady the ship, setting up a clear favourite but still watchable clash at Papara Park.

The Setup

Trabzonspor arrive in strong Form: third in the Süper Lig, 35 points from 17 games and only two defeats all season. Three wins from their last four underline a side that has found rhythm and confidence, backed by 33 goals scored and one of the league’s sharpest attacking units.

Kasımpaşa sit 14th on 15 points after 17 matches, with just three wins and a goal difference of -10. Their recent Form line of LDDLW sums them up: flashes of resistance, but nowhere near enough control over 90 minutes. On paper, the Balance is heavily tilted towards the home side, reflected in a 61.6% implied win probability for Trabzonspor.

At Papara Park, that gap tends to widen. Trabzonspor usually raise the tempo, pinning opponents deep and forcing mistakes. The Stakes are moderate but clear: the hosts can strengthen their grip on the European places, while Kasımpaşa need points to avoid being dragged deeper into the bottom pack. It’s not a title decider, but it has the feel of a quietly important league test for both.

Key Battle

The decisive duel should come between Trabzonspor’s multi-layered attack and Kasımpaşa’s penalty-box defence. The hosts like to build centrally, then accelerate the ball wide and flood the area with runners, creating overloads inside the box.

Kasımpaşa will likely respond with a compact low block, crowding the edge of the area and trying to close shooting lanes. If Trabzonspor stay patient in possession, vary their crossing angles and time late runs into the box, the pressure will mount. For Kasımpaşa, success hinges on surviving that first wave and springing quick counters into the space behind Trabzonspor’s advanced full-backs.

Our Prediction

Expect Trabzonspor to dominate the ball and territory, forcing Kasımpaşa into long spells of defending. An early home goal from structured attacking play feels likely, opening the game up after the break. As Kasımpaşa push slightly higher, Trabzonspor should exploit the gaps with quicker transitions, while the visitors snatch a consolation from one of their counters or set plays. Predicted script: sustained home pressure, periods of sterile resistance from Kasımpaşa, then quality tells. Scoreline: Trabzonspor 3-1 Kasımpaşa.