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Futmetrix Verdict
74
FT
Thu, Mar 12
Celta Vigo
1-1
Lyon
⚡ Intensity 61
⚖️ Balance 40
🏆 Stakes 67
🎲 Upset 32
Ten-man Celta survive relentless Lyon siege.

Win Probability

  • Celta Vigo 45%
  • Draw 28%
  • Lyon 27%

Futmetrix AI estimate

10-Man Celta Cling On Against Relentless Lyon Siege

Highly Entertaining Futmetrix Score: 74/100. A heroic rear-guard action from Celta Vigo leaves this Europa League tie perfectly poised, but Lyon's relentless pressure ultimately paid dividends late on.

Early Ambush

Knockout football demands nerves of steel, and the hosts initially looked up to the task on home turf. Despite facing a top-seeded opponent, Celta Vigo refused to be intimidated by the occasion. The French heavyweights quickly assumed control of the ball, dictating the tempo with their slick passing game, but it was the Spanish outfit that struck the first blow. In the 25th minute, Williot Swedberg carved open the defense with a precise delivery, allowing Javier Rueda to finish with absolute conviction. The early strike fundamentally altered the tactical landscape, forcing the visitors to push higher up the pitch. The Intensity of the opening exchanges was palpable, with both sides fiercely contesting every blade of grass in a proper European midfield battle. The home side looked perfectly comfortable absorbing pressure and striking on the counter.

The Turning Point

Everything changed in the 54th minute. The match turned completely on its head when Borja Iglesias was shown a straight red card for a reckless foul, leaving his teammates to navigate over half an hour with a numerical disadvantage. This pivotal moment shattered the Balance of the tie entirely. Lyon smelt blood and immediately pinned their hosts deep into their own penalty area. The visitors launched a relentless attacking siege, starving the Galicians of the ball and finishing the night with a staggering 71 percent possession. A barrage of 20 shots rained down on the home goal, forcing defensive blocks, desperate clearances, and last-ditch tackles. The French giants completed over 650 accurate passes as they meticulously probed for a weakness in the deeply entrenched ten-man defensive wall.

The Late Leveler

For a long time, it seemed the heroic rear-guard action would be enough to secure a famous first-leg victory. The hosts defended their box magnificently, soaking up immense pressure as the clock ticked down. However, the sheer volume of attacks eventually took its toll. In the 87th minute, the resistance was finally broken. Clinton Mata found the decisive breakthrough pass, picking out Endrick, who applied a clinical finish to secure a dramatic late equalizer. Given the incredible Stakes of this Round of 16 encounter, the 1-1 draw feels like a lifeline for both clubs. The Spanish side will be proud of their immense defensive shift, but the tie now shifts to France on March 19th. With the aggregate score deadlocked, the second leg promises to be an absolute thriller where the winner takes all.

Key Questions

How did the red card for Borja Iglesias impact the match?

It completely shifted the momentum. Forced into a defensive block, the home side surrendered 71% possession and faced a relentless 20-shot barrage for the rest of the game.

Did Celta Vigo deserve the late equalizer?

The late equalizer was actually scored by Lyon. Given their immense statistical dominance and constant attacking waves, the French side fully deserved their 87th-minute breakthrough.

What does this mean for Celta Vigo's season?

Surviving an onslaught with ten men keeps their European dream alive. The tie is perfectly balanced as they head to France for a winner-takes-all second leg.

What is the Futmetrix Score?

The Futmetrix Score is our 0-100 verdict on how entertaining a match is. We look at intensity, balance, stakes, and star quality to tell you if it's worth your time.

Match Statistics

Possession
29%
71%
Celta Vigo 29%
Lyon 71%
Shots
5
20
Celta Vigo 5
Lyon 20
Shots on Target
3
6
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 6
Expected Goals (xG)
1.10
1.08
Celta Vigo 1.10
Lyon 1.08
Passes
288
701
Celta Vigo 288
Lyon 701
Pass Accuracy
77%
93%
Celta Vigo 77%
Lyon 93%
Corners
0
7
Celta Vigo 0
Lyon 7
Fouls
11
14
Celta Vigo 11
Lyon 14
Yellow Cards
5
2
Celta Vigo 5
Lyon 2
Red Cards
1
0
Celta Vigo 1
Lyon 0

Match Events

20' 🟨 Borja Iglesias
25' J. Rueda (W. Swedberg)
HT
46' 🔄 I. Aspas F. Jutgla
46' 🔄 J. Rueda S. Carreira
48' 🟨 Óscar Mingueza
54' 🟨 Borja Iglesias
54' 🟥 Borja Iglesias
63' 🔄 O. Mingueza M. Ristic
67' 🔄 W. Swedberg P. Duran
N. Tagliafico R. Himbert 🔄 67'
Lyon A. Karabec 🔄 70'
Steeve Kango 🟨 77'
T. Morton O. Mangala 🔄 85'
S. Kango T. Tessmann 🔄 85'
N. Nartey A. Hamdani 🔄 85'
Endrick (C. Mata) 87'
90'+1 🔄 I. Moriba H. Sotelo
90'+3 🟨 Marcos Alonso
90'+3 🟨 Matías Vecino
FT

Player Cards

Our take on every player in this match

Celta Vigo

Goalkeepers
Ionuț Radu
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Defenders
Javi Rodríguez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Carl Starfelt
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Marcos Alonso
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Midfielders
Javi Rueda
SNIPER
SNIPER
100%
Conversion
100%
Conversion
1
Goals
1
Shots
Matías Vecino
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Ilaix Moriba
NPC
NPC
89
Minutes
89
Minutes
14%
Pass Acc
6.6
Rating
Óscar Mingueza
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
63
Total Mins
63
Entry
Forwards
Iago Aspas
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
46
Entry
Williot Swedberg
PROVOCATEUR
PROVOCATEUR
3
Fouls Won
3
Fouls Won
5
Duels Won
0
Pens Won
Borja Iglesias
FRIENDLY FIRE
FRIENDLY FIRE
Red Card
Mistake
Red Card
Mistake
3
Fouls
5.5
Rating
BENCH
Iván Villar
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Mihailo Ristić
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
27
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Joseph Aidoo
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Sergio Carreira
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Álvaro Núñez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Carlos Domínguez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Hugo Sotelo
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
1
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Hugo Álvarez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Fer López
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Jones El Abdellaoui
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Ferran Jutglà
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Pablo Durán
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
24
Total Mins
Started
Entry

Lyon

Goalkeepers
Dominik Greif
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Defenders
Steeve Kango
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
2
Key Passes
2
Key Passes
0
Assists
50%
Pass Acc
Clinton Mata
MAGNET
MAGNET
101
Activity
101
Activity
94
Passes
7
Duels
Moussa Niakhaté
MAGNET
MAGNET
95
Activity
95
Activity
90
Passes
5
Duels
Nicolás Tagliafico
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
1
Shots
1
Shots
0
Goals
0
On Target
Midfielders
Tyler Morton
MAGNET
MAGNET
108
Activity
108
Activity
103
Passes
5
Duels
Corentin Tolisso
MAGNET
MAGNET
107
Activity
107
Activity
102
Passes
5
Duels
Endrick
CLUTCH HERO
CLUTCH HERO
87
Goal Time
87
Goal Time
Goal
Impact
8
Rating
Noah Teye Nartey
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
4
Key Passes
4
Key Passes
0
Assists
44%
Pass Acc
Abner
MAGNET
MAGNET
71
Activity
71
Activity
62
Passes
9
Duels
Forwards
Roman Yaremchuk
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
BENCH
Rémy Descamps
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Yvann Konan
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Tanner Tessmann
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
13
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Kiliane Merah
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
T. Goncalves
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Orel Mangala
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
13
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Adam Karabec
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
20
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Matheus de Carvalho
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Rémi Himbert
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
4
Total Mins
Started
Entry
A. Hamdani
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
13
Total Mins
Started
Entry

Head to Head

Date Home Score Away Competition Venue
03/12/2026 Celta Vigo 1 - 1 Lyon UEFA Europa League
07/29/2023 Celta Vigo 1 - 0 Lyon Friendlies Clubs Abanca-Balaídos
03/12/2026
UEFA Europa League
07/29/2023
Friendlies Clubs Abanca-Balaídos
Celta Vigo Win
Lyon Win
Draw

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