Our Record

Twice a week we pick five matches. Then we come back and show you how they went — the good calls and the bad ones.

47.1% of our picks turned out to be thrillers

Pick any match at random and you get 31%.

65% were worth watching or better.

From 3,391 matches over the same stretch.

Last season, replayed

We ran the same five-a-week rule over last season to see how it would have gone. Replayed, not called at the time — kept separate for that reason.

398 Picks

187 Thrillers

258 Worth watching

139 Misses

1 Called off

Thriller rate 47.1% vs 31% for any match

Hit rate 65% vs 51.1% for any match

Our best call

Inter — Napoli

Serie A · Jan 11, 2026

We said 93. It finished 100.

We said watch it. It delivered.

Our worst miss

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — Al-Hilal Saudi FC

AFC Champions League Elite · Feb 9, 2026

We said 70. It finished 11.

We said watch it. It did not. We are leaving it up.

Week by week

2026-W31 Weekend Replay 0 thrillers, 0 worth watching, 1 misses
- Coritiba — Cruzeiro 49 → 19 Miss
2026-W31 Midweek Replay 1 thrillers, 1 worth watching, 3 misses
- Vitoria — Palmeiras 76 → 74 Thriller
- Internacional — Flamengo 63 → 48 Miss
- Corinthians — Atletico Paranaense 63 → 26 Miss
- Fluminense — Bahia 53 → 24 Miss
- Atletico-MG — RB Bragantino 46 Called off
2026-W30 Weekend Replay 1 thrillers, 2 worth watching, 3 misses
- Orlando City SC — Nashville SC 82 → 32 Miss
- New York Red Bulls — Charlotte 77 → 61 Worth it
- New York City FC — Chicago Fire 75 → 51 Miss
- CF Montreal — Inter Miami 74 → 33 Miss
- San Jose Earthquakes — Los Angeles Galaxy 74 → 73 Thriller
2026-W30 Midweek Replay 3 thrillers, 4 worth watching, 1 misses
- Inter Miami — Chicago Fire 95 → 91 Thriller
- FC Cincinnati — Vancouver Whitecaps 80 → 100 Thriller
- Nashville SC — CF Montreal 75 → 34 Miss
- Chapecoense-sc — Flamengo 73 → 72 Thriller
- Coritiba — Palmeiras 71 → 58 Worth it
2026-W29 Weekend Replay 2 thrillers, 2 worth watching, 3 misses
- Spain — Argentina 66 → 39 Miss
- Fluminense — RB Bragantino 64 → 99 Thriller
- France — England 64 → 99 Thriller
- Los Angeles Galaxy — Los Angeles FC 61 → 38 Miss
- Nashville SC — Atlanta United FC 57 → 32 Miss
2026-W29 Midweek Replay Quiet midweek — no slate
2026-W28 Weekend Replay 3 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 0 misses
- Norway — England 58 → 89 Thriller
- Spain — Belgium 56 → 74 Thriller
- Argentina — Switzerland 55 → 100 Thriller
2026-W28 Midweek Replay 2 thrillers, 4 worth watching, 1 misses
- France — Morocco 64 → 48 Miss
- Mexico — England 59 → 99 Thriller
- USA — Belgium 57 → 65 Worth it
- Portugal — Spain 56 → 57 Worth it
- Argentina — Egypt 55 → 100 Thriller
2026-W27 Weekend Replay 1 thrillers, 2 worth watching, 3 misses
- Brazil — Norway 54 → 100 Thriller
- Canada — Morocco 53 → 56 Worth it
- Paraguay — France 47 → 43 Miss
- Switzerland — Algeria 46 → 29 Miss
- Australia — Egypt 45 → 34 Miss
2026-W27 Midweek Replay Quiet midweek — no slate
2026-W26 Weekend Replay 3 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- Norway — France 55 → 85 Thriller
- Colombia — Portugal 53 → 43 Miss
- Türkiye — USA 47 → 100 Thriller
- Uruguay — Spain 45 → 54 Miss
- Egypt — Iran 45 → 79 Thriller
2026-W26 Midweek Replay Quiet midweek — no slate
2026-W25 Weekend Replay 2 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- Germany — Ivory Coast 52 → 91 Thriller
- USA — Australia 48 → 48 Miss
- Netherlands — Sweden 47 → 88 Thriller
- Scotland — Morocco 42 → 34 Miss
- Spain — Saudi Arabia 41 → 65 Worth it
2026-W25 Midweek Replay Quiet midweek — no slate
2026-W22 Weekend Replay 1 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- Paris Saint Germain — Arsenal 100 → 50 Miss
- Cruzeiro — Fluminense 64 → 42 Miss
- RB Bragantino — Internacional 61 → 71 Thriller
- Nice — Saint Etienne 60 → 60 Worth it
- Flamengo — Coritiba 49 → 59 Worth it
2026-W22 Midweek Replay 2 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Cruz Azul 71 → 91 Thriller
- Los Angeles FC — Seattle Sounders 69 → 41 Miss
- Saint Etienne — Nice 69 → 27 Miss
- Coritiba — Bahia 68 → 71 Thriller
- SC Paderborn 07 — VfL Wolfsburg 66 → 62 Worth it
2026-W21 Weekend Replay 4 thrillers, 5 worth watching, 0 misses
- Villarreal — Atletico Madrid 97 → 84 Thriller
- Bologna — Inter 94 → 100 Thriller
- Valencia — Barcelona 93 → 88 Thriller
- Flamengo — Palmeiras 87 → 81 Thriller
- Portland Timbers — San Jose Earthquakes 84 → 66 Worth it
2026-W21 Midweek Replay 3 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- SC Freiburg — Aston Villa 90 → 51 Miss
- Bournemouth — Manchester City 89 → 71 Thriller
- Nashville SC — Los Angeles FC 80 → 83 Thriller
- Chelsea — Tottenham 73 → 76 Thriller
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas — CF Pachuca 69 → 26 Miss
2026-W20 Weekend Replay 3 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- Kasımpaşa — Galatasaray 94 → 41 Miss
- Marseille — Rennes 93 → 71 Thriller
- SC Freiburg — RB Leipzig 88 → 51 Miss
- Samsunspor — Göztepe 88 → 83 Thriller
- Lyon — Lens 88 → 70 Thriller
2026-W20 Midweek Replay 3 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- New England Revolution — Nashville SC 100 → 52 Miss
- Alaves — Barcelona 96 → 42 Miss
- Seattle Sounders — San Jose Earthquakes 95 → 100 Thriller
- Villarreal — Sevilla 83 → 85 Thriller
- Osasuna — Atletico Madrid 81 → 100 Thriller
2026-W19 Weekend Replay 1 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- San Jose Earthquakes — Vancouver Whitecaps 99 → 50 Miss
- Beşiktaş — Trabzonspor 91 → 95 Thriller
- Barcelona — Real Madrid 91 → 61 Worth it
- Lazio — Inter 90 → 64 Worth it
- Monaco — Lille 89 → 35 Miss
2026-W19 Midweek Replay 2 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest 87 → 66 Worth it
- SC Freiburg — SC Braga 85 → 79 Thriller
- Arsenal — Atletico Madrid 84 → 40 Miss
- Bayern München — Paris Saint Germain 76 → 72 Thriller
- Sevilla — Real Sociedad 75 → 38 Miss
2026-W18 Weekend Replay 5 thrillers, 5 worth watching, 0 misses
- Bayer Leverkusen — RB Leipzig 99 → 87 Thriller
- Manchester United — Liverpool 98 → 92 Thriller
- Osasuna — Barcelona 91 → 75 Thriller
- Lyon — Rennes 89 → 98 Thriller
- 1899 Hoffenheim — VfB Stuttgart 88 → 100 Thriller
2026-W18 Midweek Replay 3 thrillers, 4 worth watching, 1 misses
- Atletico Madrid — Arsenal 95 → 59 Worth it
- Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa 93 → 43 Miss
- SC Braga — SC Freiburg 88 → 85 Thriller
- Konyaspor — Trabzonspor 87 → 75 Thriller
- Paris Saint Germain — Bayern München 76 → 100 Thriller

Does our verdict hold up?

We said	Matches	Average finish	Worth watching	Thrillers
Must-Watch	148	75.7	81.8%	59.5%
Highly Entertaining	438	64.4	63.7%	41.6%
Worth Watching	696	60.9	57.2%	35.3%
Average Entertainment	850	56.2	48.8%	29.3%
Skip It	1,259	51.7	41.4%	22.8%

Every match we rated, grouped by what we said before kickoff and what it turned out to be. The order holds. The gap between tiers is narrower than we would like, and we would rather show you that than hide it.

When the market says 60%, what happens?

0–9% 15.8% 380

10–19% 16.7% 1,157

20–29% 25.3% 4,221

30–39% 33.7% 1,529

40–49% 46.9% 1,191

50–59% 52.2% 841

60–69% 63.3% 507

70–79% 64.6% 294

80–89% 92.2% 51

Our picks lean on where the betting market puts each side. This is how often that number lands. The middle is sharp; the far ends drift, and we are not going to pretend otherwise.

How this works

Football is random — that's why we love it. We don't claim to see the future; we claim a better hit rate than chance, and here's the ledger.

Five matches, twice a week. Weekend picks go up Friday and get graded Monday. Midweek picks go up Monday and get graded Friday. If a midweek is too quiet to be worth five picks, we skip it and say so.

We lock in our score the moment we pick a match, and lock in the finishing score the moment we grade it. Nothing gets quietly edited afterwards.

A thriller finished at 70 or better. Worth watching finished at 55 or better. Anything under that is a miss. Matches called off don't count either way.

We don't tip results and we don't do scorelines. We tell you which match to put on.

We might be wrong. Some weeks we are. Those weeks stay on this page.