Our Record
Up to five picks, twice a week, locked in before kickoff. Then we come back and show you the receipts.
47.1% of our picks turned into thrillers
Pick a match at random and you get 30.7%. That's the bar we beat.
65% were worth watching or better.
From 3,422 matches over the same stretch.
This season
Selection: unknown · scoring: unknown
The one that got away
We said 51. It finished 29.
We said watch it. It didn't. Still here — we don't take these down.
This season
Selection: v2-league-boost · scoring: unknown
Our best call
Atletico Paranaense — Fluminense
We said 76. It finished 100.
We said watch it. It delivered.
The one that got away
We said 47. It finished 30.
We said watch it. It didn't. Still here — we don't take these down.
This season
Selection: v3-strict-cap · scoring: v2.3-opening-two
The one that got away
We said 95. It finished 29.
We said watch it. It didn't. Still here — we don't take these down.
Last season, replayed
A historical replay under its recorded policy, not calls made at the time — so we keep it separate.
Selection: unknown · scoring: unknown
The one that got away
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — Al-Hilal Saudi FC
We said 70. It finished 11.
We said watch it. It didn't. Still here — we don't take these down.
Week by week
- 2026-W38 Midweek Not graded yet
- Deportivo La Coruna — Sevilla 74 To come
- Barcelona — Racing Santander 74 To come
- Leeds — Newcastle 60 → 51 Missed
- Inter — Udinese 54 → 100 Thriller
- Torino — AS Roma 50 → 39 Missed
- 2026-W37 Weekend 4 thrillers, 4 worth watching, 1 missed
- Manchester United — Manchester City 95 → 71 Thriller
- Chelsea — Hull City 81 → 94 Thriller
- Paris FC — Lyon 95 → 29 Missed
- Lazio — AC Milan 75 → 90 Thriller
- Racing Santander — Alaves 72 → 79 Thriller
- 2026-W37 Midweek 2 thrillers, 2 worth watching, 3 missed
- Toronto FC — Nashville SC 80 → 48 Missed
- Portland Timbers — St. Louis City 78 → 91 Thriller
- Udinese — Lazio 47 → 74 Thriller
- Chicago Fire — Inter Miami 75 → 47 Missed
- Austin — Colorado Rapids 70 → 40 Missed
- 2026-W36 Weekend 4 thrillers, 4 worth watching, 1 missed
- Arsenal — Chelsea 60 → 95 Thriller
- Juventus — AC Milan 60 → 76 Thriller
- Real Betis — Real Madrid 56 → 71 Thriller
- Inter — Napoli 55 → 100 Thriller
- Charlotte — Houston Dynamo 84 → 36 Missed
- 2026-W36 Midweek 2 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 missed
- Lecce — AS Roma 43 → 56 Worth it
- Toulouse — Lille 47 → 30 Missed
- Amed — Trabzonspor 47 → 80 Thriller
- Barcelona — Rayo Vallecano 31 → 88 Thriller
- Atalanta — Bologna 29 → 41 Missed
- 2026-W35 Weekend 3 thrillers, 5 worth watching, 0 missed
- Nashville SC — FC Cincinnati 80 → 62 Worth it
- Sevilla — Atletico Madrid 49 → 62 Worth it
- Chelsea — Brighton 49 → 90 Thriller
- Atletico Paranaense — Fluminense 76 → 100 Thriller
- Flamengo — Botafogo 74 → 91 Thriller
- 2026-W35 Midweek 2 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 missed
- Sabah FA — Hapoel Beer Sheva 53 → 87 Thriller
- Lyon — Fenerbahçe 49 → 67 Worth it
- Viking — Dinamo Zagreb 47 → 39 Missed
- Bodo/Glimt — NEC Nijmegen 42 → 44 Missed
- Botafogo — Atletico Paranaense 68 → 98 Thriller
- 2026-W34 Weekend 4 thrillers, 4 worth watching, 1 missed
- St. Louis City — Houston Dynamo 78 → 77 Thriller
- Nashville SC — Columbus Crew 75 → 87 Thriller
- Cruzeiro — Flamengo 74 → 72 Thriller
- New York Red Bulls — Chicago Fire 72 → 41 Missed
- Los Angeles FC — Portland Timbers 72 → 75 Thriller
- 2026-W34 Midweek 1 thrillers, 2 worth watching, 3 missed
- Colorado Rapids — Los Angeles FC 93 → 55 Worth it
- New York Red Bulls — Nashville SC 79 → 43 Missed
- Philadelphia Union — Inter Miami 75 → 98 Thriller
- Vancouver Whitecaps — Houston Dynamo 75 → 45 Missed
- Orlando City SC — Chicago Fire 73 → 37 Missed
- 2026-W33 Weekend 2 thrillers, 4 worth watching, 1 missed
- Nashville SC — Inter Miami 100 → 73 Thriller
- Fluminense — Palmeiras 92 → 100 Thriller
- San Jose Earthquakes — St. Louis City 76 → 55 Worth it
- Corinthians — Cruzeiro 71 → 68 Worth it
- Real Salt Lake — Minnesota United FC 70 → 53 Missed
- 2026-W33 Midweek Quiet week — no slate
- 2026-W32 Weekend 0 thrillers, 0 worth watching, 5 missed
- Botafogo — Fluminense 67 → 51 Missed
- Santos — Atletico Paranaense 65 → 44 Missed
- Flamengo — Vitoria 64 → 47 Missed
- RB Bragantino — Corinthians 61 → 38 Missed
- Palmeiras — Internacional 51 → 29 Missed
- 2026-W32 Midweek Quiet week — no slate
- 2026-W31 Weekend Replay 0 thrillers, 0 worth watching, 1 missed
- Coritiba — Cruzeiro 49 → 19 Missed
- 2026-W31 Midweek Replay 1 thrillers, 1 worth watching, 3 missed
- Vitoria — Palmeiras 76 → 74 Thriller
- Internacional — Flamengo 63 → 48 Missed
- Corinthians — Atletico Paranaense 63 → 26 Missed
- Fluminense — Bahia 53 → 24 Missed
- Atletico-MG — RB Bragantino 46 Called off
- 2026-W30 Weekend Replay 1 thrillers, 2 worth watching, 3 missed
- Orlando City SC — Nashville SC 82 → 32 Missed
- New York Red Bulls — Charlotte 77 → 61 Worth it
- New York City FC — Chicago Fire 75 → 51 Missed
- CF Montreal — Inter Miami 74 → 33 Missed
- San Jose Earthquakes — Los Angeles Galaxy 74 → 73 Thriller
- 2026-W30 Midweek Replay 3 thrillers, 4 worth watching, 1 missed
- Inter Miami — Chicago Fire 95 → 91 Thriller
- FC Cincinnati — Vancouver Whitecaps 80 → 100 Thriller
- Nashville SC — CF Montreal 75 → 34 Missed
- Chapecoense-sc — Flamengo 73 → 72 Thriller
- Coritiba — Palmeiras 71 → 58 Worth it
- 2026-W29 Weekend Replay 2 thrillers, 2 worth watching, 3 missed
- Spain — Argentina 66 → 39 Missed
- Fluminense — RB Bragantino 64 → 99 Thriller
- France — England 64 → 99 Thriller
- Los Angeles Galaxy — Los Angeles FC 61 → 38 Missed
- Nashville SC — Atlanta United FC 57 → 32 Missed
- 2026-W29 Midweek Replay Quiet week — no slate
- 2026-W28 Weekend Replay 3 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 0 missed
- Norway — England 58 → 89 Thriller
- Spain — Belgium 56 → 74 Thriller
- Argentina — Switzerland 55 → 100 Thriller
- 2026-W28 Midweek Replay 2 thrillers, 4 worth watching, 1 missed
- France — Morocco 64 → 48 Missed
- Mexico — England 59 → 99 Thriller
- USA — Belgium 57 → 65 Worth it
- Portugal — Spain 56 → 57 Worth it
- Argentina — Egypt 55 → 100 Thriller
- 2026-W27 Weekend Replay 1 thrillers, 2 worth watching, 3 missed
- Brazil — Norway 54 → 100 Thriller
- Canada — Morocco 53 → 56 Worth it
- Paraguay — France 47 → 43 Missed
- Switzerland — Algeria 46 → 29 Missed
- Australia — Egypt 45 → 34 Missed
- 2026-W27 Midweek Replay Quiet week — no slate
- 2026-W26 Weekend Replay 3 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 missed
- Norway — France 55 → 85 Thriller
- Colombia — Portugal 53 → 43 Missed
- Türkiye — USA 47 → 100 Thriller
- Uruguay — Spain 45 → 54 Missed
- Egypt — Iran 45 → 79 Thriller
Does our verdict hold up?
| We said | Matches | Average finish | Worth watching | Thrillers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Must-Watch | 158 | 75.2 | 81.6% | 58.9% |
| Highly Entertaining | 480 | 64.4 | 63.5% | 41.5% |
| Worth Watching | 770 | 61.2 | 57.7% | 36% |
| Average Entertainment | 946 | 56.3 | 49% | 29.3% |
| Skip It | 1,647 | 51.6 | 41.2% | 22.3% |
Every match we rated, grouped by what we said before kickoff against how it finished. The order holds — call it higher, it finishes higher. The tiers sit closer than we'd like, and you can see that here rather than take our word for it.
When the market says 60%, what actually happens?
Our picks lean on where the betting market puts each side. Here's how often that number lands. The middle is sharp. The long shots drift — they always do, and we'd rather show you than round it off.
How this works
Football is random — that's the whole point. We don't call results. We call which match is worth your evening, and here's the ledger.
Up to five matches, twice a week, max two per league. Weekend picks go up Friday, graded Monday, and can contain one to five. Midweek picks go up Monday, graded Friday, and need at least three worth your time; otherwise we skip it and say so.
The score is locked the moment we pick. The finishing score is locked the moment we grade. Nothing gets quietly edited after the fact.
A thriller finishes 70 or better. Worth watching finishes 55 or better. Below that, we missed it. Called-off matches count for nobody.
We don't tip results and we don't do scorelines. We tell you which match to put on.
We get some wrong. Those stay up too — that's what makes the rest worth something.