Our Record
Twice a week we pick five matches. Then we come back and show you how they went — the good calls and the bad ones.
0% of our picks turned out to be thrillers
Pick any match at random and you get 14%.
0% were worth watching or better.
From 50 matches over the same stretch.
This season
Our best call
Nothing to show here yet.
Our worst miss
We said 51. It finished 29.
We said watch it. It did not. We are leaving it up.
Last season, replayed
We ran the same five-a-week rule over last season to see how it would have gone. Replayed, not called at the time — kept separate for that reason.
Our worst miss
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — Al-Hilal Saudi FC
We said 70. It finished 11.
We said watch it. It did not. We are leaving it up.
Week by week
- 2026-W33 Midweek Quiet midweek — no slate
- 2026-W32 Weekend 0 thrillers, 0 worth watching, 5 misses
- Botafogo — Fluminense 67 → 51 Miss
- Santos — Atletico Paranaense 65 → 44 Miss
- Flamengo — Vitoria 64 → 47 Miss
- RB Bragantino — Corinthians 61 → 38 Miss
- Palmeiras — Internacional 51 → 29 Miss
- 2026-W32 Midweek Quiet midweek — no slate
- 2026-W31 Weekend Replay 0 thrillers, 0 worth watching, 1 misses
- Coritiba — Cruzeiro 49 → 19 Miss
- 2026-W31 Midweek Replay 1 thrillers, 1 worth watching, 3 misses
- Vitoria — Palmeiras 76 → 74 Thriller
- Internacional — Flamengo 63 → 48 Miss
- Corinthians — Atletico Paranaense 63 → 26 Miss
- Fluminense — Bahia 53 → 24 Miss
- Atletico-MG — RB Bragantino 46 Called off
- 2026-W30 Weekend Replay 1 thrillers, 2 worth watching, 3 misses
- Orlando City SC — Nashville SC 82 → 32 Miss
- New York Red Bulls — Charlotte 77 → 61 Worth it
- New York City FC — Chicago Fire 75 → 51 Miss
- CF Montreal — Inter Miami 74 → 33 Miss
- San Jose Earthquakes — Los Angeles Galaxy 74 → 73 Thriller
- 2026-W30 Midweek Replay 3 thrillers, 4 worth watching, 1 misses
- Inter Miami — Chicago Fire 95 → 91 Thriller
- FC Cincinnati — Vancouver Whitecaps 80 → 100 Thriller
- Nashville SC — CF Montreal 75 → 34 Miss
- Chapecoense-sc — Flamengo 73 → 72 Thriller
- Coritiba — Palmeiras 71 → 58 Worth it
- 2026-W29 Weekend Replay 2 thrillers, 2 worth watching, 3 misses
- Spain — Argentina 66 → 39 Miss
- Fluminense — RB Bragantino 64 → 99 Thriller
- France — England 64 → 99 Thriller
- Los Angeles Galaxy — Los Angeles FC 61 → 38 Miss
- Nashville SC — Atlanta United FC 57 → 32 Miss
- 2026-W29 Midweek Replay Quiet midweek — no slate
- 2026-W28 Weekend Replay 3 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 0 misses
- Norway — England 58 → 89 Thriller
- Spain — Belgium 56 → 74 Thriller
- Argentina — Switzerland 55 → 100 Thriller
- 2026-W28 Midweek Replay 2 thrillers, 4 worth watching, 1 misses
- France — Morocco 64 → 48 Miss
- Mexico — England 59 → 99 Thriller
- USA — Belgium 57 → 65 Worth it
- Portugal — Spain 56 → 57 Worth it
- Argentina — Egypt 55 → 100 Thriller
- 2026-W27 Weekend Replay 1 thrillers, 2 worth watching, 3 misses
- Brazil — Norway 54 → 100 Thriller
- Canada — Morocco 53 → 56 Worth it
- Paraguay — France 47 → 43 Miss
- Switzerland — Algeria 46 → 29 Miss
- Australia — Egypt 45 → 34 Miss
- 2026-W27 Midweek Replay Quiet midweek — no slate
- 2026-W26 Weekend Replay 3 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- Norway — France 55 → 85 Thriller
- Colombia — Portugal 53 → 43 Miss
- Türkiye — USA 47 → 100 Thriller
- Uruguay — Spain 45 → 54 Miss
- Egypt — Iran 45 → 79 Thriller
- 2026-W26 Midweek Replay Quiet midweek — no slate
- 2026-W25 Weekend Replay 2 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- Germany — Ivory Coast 52 → 91 Thriller
- USA — Australia 48 → 48 Miss
- Netherlands — Sweden 47 → 88 Thriller
- Scotland — Morocco 42 → 34 Miss
- Spain — Saudi Arabia 41 → 65 Worth it
- 2026-W25 Midweek Replay Quiet midweek — no slate
- 2026-W22 Weekend Replay 1 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- Paris Saint Germain — Arsenal 100 → 50 Miss
- Cruzeiro — Fluminense 64 → 42 Miss
- RB Bragantino — Internacional 61 → 71 Thriller
- Nice — Saint Etienne 60 → 60 Worth it
- Flamengo — Coritiba 49 → 59 Worth it
- 2026-W22 Midweek Replay 2 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Cruz Azul 71 → 91 Thriller
- Los Angeles FC — Seattle Sounders 69 → 41 Miss
- Saint Etienne — Nice 69 → 27 Miss
- Coritiba — Bahia 68 → 71 Thriller
- SC Paderborn 07 — VfL Wolfsburg 66 → 62 Worth it
- 2026-W21 Weekend Replay 4 thrillers, 5 worth watching, 0 misses
- Villarreal — Atletico Madrid 97 → 84 Thriller
- Bologna — Inter 94 → 100 Thriller
- Valencia — Barcelona 93 → 88 Thriller
- Flamengo — Palmeiras 87 → 81 Thriller
- Portland Timbers — San Jose Earthquakes 84 → 66 Worth it
- 2026-W21 Midweek Replay 3 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- SC Freiburg — Aston Villa 90 → 51 Miss
- Bournemouth — Manchester City 89 → 71 Thriller
- Nashville SC — Los Angeles FC 80 → 83 Thriller
- Chelsea — Tottenham 73 → 76 Thriller
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas — CF Pachuca 69 → 26 Miss
- 2026-W20 Weekend Replay 3 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- Kasımpaşa — Galatasaray 94 → 41 Miss
- Marseille — Rennes 93 → 71 Thriller
- SC Freiburg — RB Leipzig 88 → 51 Miss
- Samsunspor — Göztepe 88 → 83 Thriller
- Lyon — Lens 88 → 70 Thriller
- 2026-W20 Midweek Replay 3 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- New England Revolution — Nashville SC 100 → 52 Miss
- Alaves — Barcelona 96 → 42 Miss
- Seattle Sounders — San Jose Earthquakes 95 → 100 Thriller
- Villarreal — Sevilla 83 → 85 Thriller
- Osasuna — Atletico Madrid 81 → 100 Thriller
- 2026-W19 Weekend Replay 1 thrillers, 3 worth watching, 2 misses
- San Jose Earthquakes — Vancouver Whitecaps 99 → 50 Miss
- Beşiktaş — Trabzonspor 91 → 95 Thriller
- Barcelona — Real Madrid 91 → 61 Worth it
- Lazio — Inter 90 → 64 Worth it
- Monaco — Lille 89 → 35 Miss
Does our verdict hold up?
| We said | Matches | Average finish | Worth watching | Thrillers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Must-Watch | 149 | 75.6 | 81.9% | 59.1% |
| Highly Entertaining | 442 | 64.4 | 63.8% | 41.4% |
| Worth Watching | 703 | 60.9 | 57% | 35.1% |
| Average Entertainment | 857 | 56.1 | 48.7% | 29.2% |
| Skip It | 1,333 | 51.4 | 40.7% | 22.4% |
Every match we rated, grouped by what we said before kickoff and what it turned out to be. The order holds. The gap between tiers is narrower than we would like, and we would rather show you that than hide it.
When the market says 60%, what happens?
Our picks lean on where the betting market puts each side. This is how often that number lands. The middle is sharp; the far ends drift, and we are not going to pretend otherwise.
How this works
Football is random — that's why we love it. We don't claim to see the future; we claim a better hit rate than chance, and here's the ledger.
Five matches, twice a week. Weekend picks go up Friday and get graded Monday. Midweek picks go up Monday and get graded Friday. If a midweek is too quiet to be worth five picks, we skip it and say so.
We lock in our score the moment we pick a match, and lock in the finishing score the moment we grade it. Nothing gets quietly edited afterwards.
A thriller finished at 70 or better. Worth watching finished at 55 or better. Anything under that is a miss. Matches called off don't count either way.
We don't tip results and we don't do scorelines. We tell you which match to put on.
We might be wrong. Some weeks we are. Those weeks stay on this page.