Antalyaspor 1 - 2 FT Fatih Karagümrük

Karagümrük Steal Late Drama: Johnson's 90th-Minute Winner Breaks Antalyaspor's Heart

Worth Watching Futmetrix Score: 58/100. Three goals, three lead changes, and a final-second heartbreak—this was Süper Lig's early-season masterclass in chaos and redemption.

Vural's Early Hammer Falls Short

Antalyaspor struck with intensity from the off. Güray Vural, latching onto Storm's assist in the 11th minute, fired the hosts ahead. An early opener promised control. But in Türkiye's top flight, nothing is certain.

Karagümrük's Counter-Surge and the Turning Points

The 42nd minute flipped the script. Daniel Johnson supplied the assist for Anıl Yiğit Çınar to level. The match became a study in balance—26 shots combined, 12 on target, 11 corners. Both sides attacked relentlessly. Goalkeepers made eight saves between them. This wasn't a chess match; this was open warfare on grass. The visitors' 1.56 expected goals signalled genuine threat; the home side's 48% possession and 81% pass accuracy suggested they should have won.

The 90th Minute: Johnson's Destiny

Deep into stoppage time, with the match balanced on a knife's edge, Johnson received Cankaya's pass and struck the winner. Three lead changes in 90 minutes. For Karagümrük, sitting 13th on three points pre-match, this was salvation. For Antalyaspor, ninth on six points, this was a cruel reversal of fortune. The upset factor was real: the lower-ranked side, the team fighting relegation form (one win in four), had snatched victory from the jaws of a draw. The late winner from a tied position carries a narrative weight few other moments in football can match.

Antalya hosts an August survival test

Skip It Futmetrix Score: 15/100. For Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük, this isn’t just Round 4; it’s an early-season crossroads that could lock one of them into a long survival fight.

The Setup

On 30 August 2025, Süper Lig Round 4 brings Antalyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük together at the stadium in a game that already feels like a survival checkpoint. Strip away the early-season label and the numbers bite: Antalyaspor sit 13th with 14 points from 14 games, Karagümrük 18th with 8 from 14. Both have scored barely a goal a game while conceding heavily, with goal differences of -11 and -13 signalling trouble.

Antalyaspor’s recent Form reads “LDLWL”, a stop-start run marked by defensive lapses and momentum swings. Karagümrük’s “LDWLD” tells a similar story: every step forward quickly dragged back. The Balance tips slightly toward the hosts thanks to home advantage and a small points cushion, but neither side has shown the control to close games out comfortably. That’s exactly the recipe for a nervy, error-strewn relegation battle long before winter arrives.

In terms of Stakes, it’s simple: Antalyaspor can push themselves closer to mid-table safety with a win, while dragging a direct rival deeper into trouble. Karagümrük, meanwhile, know defeat would widen the gap to precisely the kind of opponent they must catch. Win here and they drag Antalyaspor back into the mire; lose, and the season’s narrative hardens into a full-blown relegation fight.

Key Battle

The decisive contest should unfold between Antalyaspor’s attacking unit and Karagümrük’s defensive block. The hosts are likely to dominate the ball, pushing their line high and trying to pin Karagümrük into their own third. The visitors will look to stay narrow and compact, protecting the central zones and daring Antalyaspor to find quality in crowded spaces. If the home side can stretch the pitch, deliver consistently into the box and flood second balls, Karagümrük’s back line will crack. But if the visitors keep their shape and spring quickly in transition, Antalyaspor’s own vulnerable defence can be exposed on the break.

Our Prediction

We expect Antalyaspor to dictate the script. A front-foot start, aggressive pressing and sustained territory should gradually wear Karagümrük down, even if the breakthrough takes time. The visitors have enough pace and directness in transition to fashion chances of their own and are well capable of finding a goal, but their defensive fragility makes a full comeback unlikely once they fall behind. Our call: Antalyaspor 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük, with the hosts edging a tense, scrappy contest on the back of pressure rather than fluency.