Sturm Graz 1 - 0 FT Marseille

Stadion Graz-Liebenau

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Futmetrix Verdict
26
FT
Thu, Oct 22
Sturm Graz
1-0
Marseille
⚡ Intensity 22
⚖️ Balance 31
🏆 Stakes 11
🎲 Upset 60
Diakité struck; Marseille never answered

Win Probability

  • Sturm Graz 27%
  • Draw 26%
  • Marseille 47%

Futmetrix AI estimate

One early strike exposes Marseille’s sterile control

Skip It Futmetrix Score: 26/100. A third straight league-stage defeat leaves the visitors on zero points, while the hosts finally have a win to build on.

Opening Act

Sturm Graz struck before Marseille could settle, then made the visitors’ long spells on the ball look sterile. At Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Oumar Diakité met Luca Weinhandl’s setup in the 13th minute, putting the hosts in front before the match had found its rhythm. Marseille controlled possession with 71 per cent and moved the ball through 597 accurate passes, but that control rarely became a test. They finished with only one shot on target from 14 attempts. Sturm Graz had just 29 per cent possession, yet found more direct routes into dangerous areas and created four big chances. The contrast was stark: one side owned the ball, the other reached the goalkeeper far more often. The Intensity grew from Marseille’s need to chase, not from their ability to turn pressure into clear openings.

The Pivot

The opener became the match’s hinge: it let Sturm protect a lead without abandoning the threat of a counter. Marseille pushed higher and sent 154 passes into the final third, with 26 crosses, but the final action repeatedly fell short. Their 0.73 expected goals and single big chance expose the gap between territory and danger. Sturm, by contrast, recorded 1.47 expected goals and put five efforts on target, despite taking only 13 shots overall. Across both teams, 27 attempts yielded six shots on target, a blunt summary of a match that was busy without being consistently accurate. The Balance tilted on the decisive detail: Diakité’s early finish gave Sturm a cushion, while Marseille never produced the clean final touch needed to make all that circulation count. Sturm’s 31 clearances show how hard they had to work to protect it.

Resolution

Sturm Graz leave round three with four points from three matches and occupy 16th place in the 36-team league phase. Marseille remain 34th, still without a point after three defeats, with only one goal scored across those fixtures. Sturm Graz beat Marseille 1-0, turning a disciplined home performance into a foothold in the campaign. The Stakes are substantial, but no campaign is decided after three rounds; the immediate demand is clearer execution, especially for a side that had so much of the ball and so little to show for it. The Upset Factor adds bite to the result: the hosts delivered the kind of win that defies expectations through discipline and sharper finishing. Sturm can carry belief forward; Marseille need to turn control into threat.

What is the Futmetrix Score?

The Futmetrix Score is our 0-100 verdict on how entertaining a match is. We look at intensity, balance, stakes, and star quality to tell you if it's worth your time.

Match Statistics

Possession
29%
71%
Sturm Graz 29%
Marseille 71%
Shots
13
14
Sturm Graz 13
Marseille 14
Shots on Target
5
1
Sturm Graz 5
Marseille 1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
0.73
Sturm Graz 1.47
Marseille 0.73
Passes
273
676
Sturm Graz 273
Marseille 676
Corners
2
4
Sturm Graz 2
Marseille 4
Fouls
23
9
Sturm Graz 23
Marseille 9
Yellow Cards
3
3
Sturm Graz 3
Marseille 3
Red Cards
0
0
Sturm Graz 0
Marseille 0

Match Events

13' ⚽ Oumar Diakité (Luca Weinhandl)
Angel Gomes 🟨 24'
32' 🟨 Oumar Diakité
↓ Neal Maupay ↑Igor Paixão 🔄 45'
↓ Angel Gomes ↑Himad Abdelli 🔄 45'
45' 🔄 ↓ Oumar Diakité ↑Belmin Beganovic
HT
63' 🟨 Luca Weinhandl
↓ Geoffrey Kondogbia ↑Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 🔄 65'
↓ Nayef Aguerd ↑CJ Egan-Riley 🔄 65'
Amine Gouiri 🟨 80'
↓ Kelyann Bezahaf ↑Timothy Weah 🔄 83'
84' 🟨 Arjan Malić
87' 🔄 ↓ Jacob Peter Hödl ↑Albert Vallci
90' 🔄 ↓ Valmir Matoshi ↑Julian Halwachs
Bamo Meite 🟨 90'+1
FT

Player Cards

Our take on every player in this match

Sturm Graz

Goalkeepers
Ammar Helac
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Defenders
Arjan Malic
WALL
WALL
0
Dribbled Past
0
Dribbled Past
3
Tackles
47%
Duel Win %
Joshua Quarshie
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Paul-Friedrich Koller
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
1
Shots
1
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Midfielders
Jacob Hödl
NPC
NPC
87
Minutes
87
Minutes
8%
Pass Acc
6.2
Rating
Jon Gorenc Stankovič
SWEEPER
SWEEPER
4
Cleanups
4
Cleanups
3
Interceptions
1
Blocks
Valmir Matoshi
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
2
Shots
2
Shots
0
Goals
0
On Target
Luis Balbo
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Luca Weinhandl
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
3
Key Passes
3
Key Passes
1
Assists
18%
Pass Acc
Forwards
Simon Seidl
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
3
Key Passes
3
Key Passes
0
Assists
14%
Pass Acc
Oumar Diakité
SNIPER
SNIPER
50%
Conversion
50%
Conversion
1
Goals
2
Shots
BENCH
Elias Lorenz
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Christoph Wiener-Pucher
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Petar Petrovic
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Albert Vallci
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
3
Total Mins
Started
Entry
M. Grgic
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Julian Halwachs
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
1
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Belmin Beganović
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Axel Kayombo
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry

Marseille

Goalkeepers
Jeffrey de Lange
MAGNET
MAGNET
60
Activity
60
Activity
60
Passes
0
Duels
Defenders
Kelyann Bezahaf
WALL
WALL
0
Dribbled Past
0
Dribbled Past
2
Tackles
42%
Duel Win %
Bamo Meité
MAGNET
MAGNET
86
Activity
86
Activity
76
Passes
10
Duels
Nayef Aguerd
MAGNET
MAGNET
80
Activity
80
Activity
76
Passes
4
Duels
Ulisses Garcia
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
2
Key Passes
2
Key Passes
0
Assists
58%
Pass Acc
Midfielders
Geoffrey Kondogbia
PROVOCATEUR
PROVOCATEUR
3
Fouls Won
3
Fouls Won
6
Duels Won
0
Pens Won
Keyliane Abdallah
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
3
Key Passes
3
Key Passes
0
Assists
39%
Pass Acc
André Gomes
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
45
Entry
Amine Gouiri
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Forwards
Neal Maupay
PROVOCATEUR
PROVOCATEUR
3
Fouls Won
3
Fouls Won
5
Duels Won
0
Pens Won
BENCH
Jelle Van Neck
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Emerson Palmieri
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Conrad Egan-Riley
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
25
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
25
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Tochukwu Nnadi
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Himad Abdelli
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Amine Harit
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Tadjidine Mmadi
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Igor Paixão
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
4
Shots
4
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Timothy Weah
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
7
Total Mins
Started
Entry

League Standings

Pos Team P Pts GF GA GD Form
1 Bayer Leverkusen 3 9 8 0 +8 WOFI 0 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen (22-10-2026)WLech Poznan 0 - 4 Bayer Leverkusen (15-10-2026)WBayer Leverkusen 2 - 0 Celje (16-09-2026)
2 Ferencvarosi TC 3 9 9 3 +6 WFerencvarosi TC 4 - 1 Torreense (22-10-2026)WFerencvarosi TC 2 - 1 Plzen (15-10-2026)WCeltic 1 - 3 Ferencvarosi TC (17-09-2026)
3 Olympiakos Piraeus 3 9 4 1 +3 WOlympiakos Piraeus 1 - 0 Sparta Praha (22-10-2026)WMarseille 0 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus (15-10-2026)WOlympiakos Piraeus 2 - 1 Jagiellonia (16-09-2026)
4 Union St. Gilloise 3 7 8 1 +7 WUnion St. Gilloise 4 - 0 Hapoel Beer Sheva (22-10-2026)DUnion St. Gilloise 1 - 1 Real Sociedad (15-10-2026)WPlzen 0 - 3 Union St. Gilloise (17-09-2026)
5 Juventus 3 7 9 3 +6 DJuventus 2 - 2 Rennes (22-10-2026)WCelta Vigo 1 - 2 Juventus (15-10-2026)WJuventus 5 - 0 NEC Nijmegen (17-09-2026)
6 Sunderland 3 7 4 2 +2 DLech Poznan 1 - 1 Sunderland (22-10-2026)WTorreense 1 - 2 Sunderland (15-10-2026)WSunderland 1 - 0 AZ Alkmaar (16-09-2026)
7 Benfica 2 6 6 1 +5 WBenfica 4 - 1 Celtic (15-10-2026)WAC Milan 0 - 2 Benfica (16-09-2026)
8 Beşiktaş 2 6 7 3 +4 W1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 3 Beşiktaş (15-10-2026)WBeşiktaş 4 - 1 Marseille (17-09-2026)
9 AZ Alkmaar 3 6 6 2 +4 WArarat-Armenia 0 - 4 AZ Alkmaar (22-10-2026)WAZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Hapoel Beer Sheva (15-10-2026)LSunderland 1 - 0 AZ Alkmaar (16-09-2026)
10 Bournemouth 2 6 5 1 +4 WBournemouth 3 - 0 Sturm Graz (15-10-2026)WReal Sociedad 1 - 2 Bournemouth (17-09-2026)
11 Omonia Nicosia 2 6 4 0 +4 WCelje 0 - 3 Omonia Nicosia (15-10-2026)WOmonia Nicosia 1 - 0 Celta Vigo (16-09-2026)
12 Lyon 2 6 5 3 +2 WLyon 3 - 2 Crystal Palace (15-10-2026)WAnderlecht 1 - 2 Lyon (16-09-2026)
13 Rennes 3 5 4 3 +1 DJuventus 2 - 2 Rennes (22-10-2026)WRennes 2 - 1 OFI (15-10-2026)DSturm Graz 0 - 0 Rennes (16-09-2026)
14 Real Sociedad 3 4 8 3 +5 WLillestrom 0 - 6 Real Sociedad (22-10-2026)DUnion St. Gilloise 1 - 1 Real Sociedad (15-10-2026)LReal Sociedad 1 - 2 Bournemouth (17-09-2026)
15 Sparta Praha 3 4 5 3 +2 LOlympiakos Piraeus 1 - 0 Sparta Praha (22-10-2026)DSparta Praha 1 - 1 Lillestrom (15-10-2026)WArarat-Armenia 1 - 4 Sparta Praha (16-09-2026)
16 Levski Sofia 3 4 3 3 0 WPlzen 1 - 2 Levski Sofia (22-10-2026)DNEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Levski Sofia (15-10-2026)LLevski Sofia 0 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg (17-09-2026)
17 Dinamo Zagreb 3 4 3 4 -1 LDinamo Zagreb 2 - 4 NEC Nijmegen (22-10-2026)WDinamo Zagreb 1 - 0 Anderlecht (15-10-2026)DHapoel Beer Sheva 0 - 0 Dinamo Zagreb (16-09-2026)
18 Sturm Graz 3 4 1 3 -2 WSturm Graz 1 - 0 Marseille (22-10-2026)LBournemouth 3 - 0 Sturm Graz (15-10-2026)DSturm Graz 0 - 0 Rennes (16-09-2026)
19 NEC Nijmegen 3 4 5 8 -3 WDinamo Zagreb 2 - 4 NEC Nijmegen (22-10-2026)DNEC Nijmegen 1 - 1 Levski Sofia (15-10-2026)LJuventus 5 - 0 NEC Nijmegen (17-09-2026)
20 Red Bull Salzburg 3 4 3 6 -3 DCelje 2 - 2 Red Bull Salzburg (22-10-2026)LRed Bull Salzburg 0 - 4 AC Milan (15-10-2026)WLevski Sofia 0 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg (17-09-2026)
21 Crystal Palace 2 3 6 3 +3 LLyon 3 - 2 Crystal Palace (15-10-2026)WCrystal Palace 4 - 0 Lech Poznan (17-09-2026)
22 AC Milan 2 3 4 2 +2 WRed Bull Salzburg 0 - 4 AC Milan (15-10-2026)LAC Milan 0 - 2 Benfica (16-09-2026)
23 Anderlecht 3 3 4 3 +1 WJagiellonia 0 - 3 Anderlecht (22-10-2026)LDinamo Zagreb 1 - 0 Anderlecht (15-10-2026)LAnderlecht 1 - 2 Lyon (16-09-2026)
24 Celta Vigo 3 3 3 4 -1 WCeltic 1 - 2 Celta Vigo (22-10-2026)LCelta Vigo 1 - 2 Juventus (15-10-2026)LOmonia Nicosia 1 - 0 Celta Vigo (16-09-2026)
25 OFI 3 3 3 4 -1 LOFI 0 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen (22-10-2026)LRennes 2 - 1 OFI (15-10-2026)WOFI 2 - 0 1899 Hoffenheim (17-09-2026)
26 Jagiellonia 3 3 4 6 -2 LJagiellonia 0 - 3 Anderlecht (22-10-2026)WJagiellonia 3 - 1 Ararat-Armenia (15-10-2026)LOlympiakos Piraeus 2 - 1 Jagiellonia (16-09-2026)
27 Torreense 3 3 4 7 -3 LFerencvarosi TC 4 - 1 Torreense (22-10-2026)LTorreense 1 - 2 Sunderland (15-10-2026)WLillestrom 1 - 2 Torreense (17-09-2026)
28 Celje 3 1 2 7 -5 DCelje 2 - 2 Red Bull Salzburg (22-10-2026)LCelje 0 - 3 Omonia Nicosia (15-10-2026)LBayer Leverkusen 2 - 0 Celje (16-09-2026)
29 Hapoel Beer Sheva 3 1 1 6 -5 LUnion St. Gilloise 4 - 0 Hapoel Beer Sheva (22-10-2026)LAZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Hapoel Beer Sheva (15-10-2026)DHapoel Beer Sheva 0 - 0 Dinamo Zagreb (16-09-2026)
30 Lillestrom 3 1 2 9 -7 LLillestrom 0 - 6 Real Sociedad (22-10-2026)DSparta Praha 1 - 1 Lillestrom (15-10-2026)LLillestrom 1 - 2 Torreense (17-09-2026)
31 Lech Poznan 3 1 1 9 -8 DLech Poznan 1 - 1 Sunderland (22-10-2026)LLech Poznan 0 - 4 Bayer Leverkusen (15-10-2026)LCrystal Palace 4 - 0 Lech Poznan (17-09-2026)
32 1899 Hoffenheim 2 0 2 5 -3 L1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 3 Beşiktaş (15-10-2026)LOFI 2 - 0 1899 Hoffenheim (17-09-2026)
33 Plzen 3 0 2 7 -5 LPlzen 1 - 2 Levski Sofia (22-10-2026)LFerencvarosi TC 2 - 1 Plzen (15-10-2026)LPlzen 0 - 3 Union St. Gilloise (17-09-2026)
34 Marseille 3 0 1 6 -5 LSturm Graz 1 - 0 Marseille (22-10-2026)LMarseille 0 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus (15-10-2026)LBeşiktaş 4 - 1 Marseille (17-09-2026)
35 Celtic 3 0 3 9 -6 LCeltic 1 - 2 Celta Vigo (22-10-2026)LBenfica 4 - 1 Celtic (15-10-2026)LCeltic 1 - 3 Ferencvarosi TC (17-09-2026)
36 Ararat-Armenia 3 0 2 11 -9 LArarat-Armenia 0 - 4 AZ Alkmaar (22-10-2026)LJagiellonia 3 - 1 Ararat-Armenia (15-10-2026)LArarat-Armenia 1 - 4 Sparta Praha (16-09-2026)

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