Athletic Club 1 - 0 FT Atletico Madrid

The 85th-Minute Earthquake That Shook the Title Race at San Mamés

Worth Watching Futmetrix Score: 52/100. Athletic Club delivered a statement victory in the dying moments at the Estadio de San Mamés, toppling the league leaders in a six-pointer that exposed the intensity gap between ambition and execution.

Chaos Breaks the Deadlock

For 84 minutes, the Estadio de San Mamés had hosted a chess match—cautious, tactical, suffocating. Then Álex Berenguer arrived with a sledgehammer. His 85th-minute finish, orchestrated by the brilliant Nico Williams, shattered Atlético Madrid's five-game winning streak and transformed Athletic's season trajectory in a single, devastating moment. Williams' creative genius—two key passes and the assist that mattered most—proved that balance matters less than precision when the stakes are highest.

The Possession Paradox

Atlético arrived as overwhelming favourites: fourth-placed, 31 points, five consecutive wins, 56% possession. Marc Pubill anchored a defence that had conceded just 11 goals all season. Yet Athletic's 44% possession concealed a sharper cutting edge—14 shots to Atlético's 8, more clinical finishing when it counted. The home side's xG of 1.05 proved decisive; Atlético's 0.77 was a reminder that dominance without ruthlessness is merely theatre. Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta orchestrated Athletic's midfield resistance with a 7.9 rating, winning the battle where titles are often decided.

A Six-Pointer With Upset Credentials

This was a crunch match in the truest sense—Athletic seventh on 20 points, Atlético fourth on 31. The upset factor was real: Athletic had lost six times already this season, their form erratic (WLWLL). Yet they delivered when it mattered most. Eleven corners generated intensity throughout; Athletic's set-piece pressure and late-game aggression finally breached the Atlético fortress. When Berenguer's boot found the net in the 85th minute, the narrative shifted entirely.

What Changes Now

Athletic Club proved they belong in this conversation. Atlético's invincibility myth cracked. The title race just became unpredictable.

San Mamés turns red: Athletic fights for survival against a rampant Atlético

Highly Entertaining Futmetrix Score: 79/100. The stakes are brutal—Athletic sits in the relegation trap with erratic form, while Atlético Madrid arrives as a top-four force in devastating form, making this a crossroads where every point feels like survival.

The Setup

Athletic Club faces its nightmare scenario: a stuttering run (LWLWL) has left them eighth with just 20 points, while Atlético arrives with five consecutive wins and 31 points sitting fourth. The balance is fractured—Atlético are clear favorites (42.8% win probability)—but Athletic's home fortress always unsettles the odds. Goal difference tells the tale: Atlético +14, Athletic -6. That chasm isn't accidental.

Key Battle

Unai Simón versus Jan Oblak: a duel of keepers that defines this match's character. Athletic's shot-stopper has made 16 saves across five games (3.2 per match), keeping two clean sheets. Oblak, more economical with eight saves in four outings, also boasts two shutouts. Whoever dictates defensive flow controls the tempo. Athletic needs Simón to be a wall; Atlético trusts Oblak to be impenetrable.

Our Prediction

Atlético Madrid wins 2-1. The visitors dominate possession and exploit the spaces Athletic surrenders in transition. Antoine Griezmann, on a run with three goals in five matches, breaks the deadlock in the second half. Athletic rally late but fall short. A result that deepens Bilbao's crisis.