Hamburger SV 2 - 1 FT VfB Stuttgart

Vieira's Late Drama: Hamburg Stuns Stuttgart in Rollercoaster Six-Pointer

Highly Entertaining Futmetrix Score: 83/100. A six-pointer defined by three lead changes, a sending-off, and a 90th-minute winner—this Bundesliga crunch match at Volksparkstadion reshapes the relegation battle.

The Intensity of the Moment

From the first whistle, intensity gripped Volksparkstadion. Robert Glatzel handed Hamburg the lead in the 17th minute, igniting hope among the home faithful. But Stuttgart, commanding 66% possession, struck back with brutal efficiency: substitute Deniz Undav, introduced in the 40th minute, levelled in the 54th. The match became an open duel—three lead changes across 90 minutes, each team hunting for the knockout blow.

The Turning Point: Rössing-Lelesiit's Red Card

Minute 81 delivered the hammer blow. Alexander Rössing-Lelesiit saw red for a foul, leaving Hamburg with 10 men. Stuttgart sensed the kill—14 shots to Hamburg's 9, 66% possession against 34%. The away side should have buried this. Instead, they faltered when it mattered most. The balance was broken not by dominance, but by resolve.

Vieira's Stoppage-Time Masterclass

Then came the 90th minute. Fábio Vieira, on the pitch since the 67th, delivered the moment that defines this fixture. Assisted by fellow substitute Ferran Balde, Vieira's finish broke the deadlock and sent Volksparkstadion into delirium. Hamburg, with just 0.98 xG, converted when it counted. Stuttgart, despite 0.75 xG and territorial dominance, crumbled when the prize was within reach.

The Relegation Battle Shifts

This wasn't just three goals—it was a referendum on the season. Hamburg sit 13th with 12 points; Stuttgart 6th with 22. The chasm between survival and crisis never felt wider. Glatzel and Vieira's strikes weren't just goals; they were lifelines. Three lead changes, one red card, and a late winner from a draw created the kind of intensity that defines relegation struggles. Hamburg's belief, thought extinct, was reborn in 90 minutes of chaos and brilliance.

Undav's Rampage: Stuttgart Ready to Punish Struggling Hamburg

Worth Watching Futmetrix Score: 68/100. Stuttgart arrive as clear favourites—a win cements their European ambitions, whilst Hamburg desperately need points to avoid the trap door.

The Setup

Stuttgart sit sixth with 22 points and momentum on their side. Hamburg, languishing 15th with just 12 points and a run of defeats, are in genuine peril. The Balance between these sides is deceptively close—a 13.4-point probability gap—but Stuttgart's Stars shine far brighter. Deniz Undav has become a goal machine: six goals in five matches, a 7.5 average rating. Hamburg's defensive frailties (18 goals conceded in 12 games) offer him a feast.

Key Battle

Stuttgart's midfield control versus Hamburg's press. Angelo Stiller dictates tempo with two assists in five outings, orchestrating the build-up with precision. Hamburg must suffocate him early or face a long afternoon. Their Form suggests they'll struggle to maintain the intensity required.

Our Prediction

Stuttgart win 2–0 or 2–1. They absorb Hamburg's opening pressure, then dismantle the hosts through patient possession. Undav converts at least one clear-cut chance. Hamburg create moments but lack the composure to punish Stuttgart's rare lapses. A comfortable away victory.