Newcastle 2 - 1 FT Burnley

Gordon and Guimarães Survive Burnley's Fightback as Red Card Reshapes St James' Park Drama

Highly Entertaining Futmetrix Score: 70/100. Newcastle's 2-1 victory over ten-man Burnley proves that intensity and numerical advantage don't always guarantee comfortable passage—this was a six-pointer that required composure under siege.

Early Control, Then Chaos

Newcastle dominated possession with 69% and dictated the opening exchanges. Bruno Guimarães broke the deadlock in the 31st minute, slotting home to reward the hosts' superior control. The Brazilian midfielder's clinical finish suggested a routine afternoon lay ahead. But Premier League football rarely obliges.

In the 43rd minute, Burnley's Lucas Pires was sent off for a tripping offence, reducing the visitors to ten men. The red card arrived just before half-time—a critical juncture that should have ended the contest. Instead, it ignited a penalty drama. Anthony Gordon converted from the spot in the 45th minute (45+8), extending Newcastle's lead to 2-0 and seemingly putting the tie beyond reach.

Substitute Flemming's Late Sting

Yet balance shifted in Burnley's favour when substitute Z. Flemming scored a penalty in the 94th minute (90+4), clawing the visitors back to 2-1. The late goal transformed a comfortable scoreline into a nervy finale, proving that even numerical disadvantage cannot suppress Burnley's desperation in a relegation battle.

Malick Thiaw anchored Newcastle's defence throughout, delivering an outstanding performance that kept the hosts' backline resolute despite Burnley's attacking forays. The 24 combined shots (10 on target) and 18 corners created relentless stakes—goalkeepers made 8 saves between them, showcasing the chaotic nature of proceedings.

Newcastle's 91% pass accuracy and dominance in possession proved decisive, but Burnley's refusal to capitulate—even down to ten men—demonstrated why they remain dangerous opponents despite their league position. The lead changed hands once; the match never settled.

Newcastle's Escape Route Meets Burnley's Last Stand

Average Entertainment Futmetrix Score: 52/100. This December clash carries genuine survival weight—eight points separate these sides, but the gap to safety tightens with every result.

The Setup

Newcastle sit 11th with 18 points, their Form mixed but edging upward (WWLLW across their last five). They've found moments of quality through midfield control and defensive contributions that go beyond the scoreline. Burnley, meanwhile, occupy the drop zone at 19th with just 10 points—a dire -12 goal difference and only one win in their last five (LLLLW). The Stakes are brutally clear: Newcastle chase breathing room; Burnley hunts a lifeline. Our Balance analysis reveals this matchup is tighter than raw league position suggests—Burnley's desperation could flip the script if Newcastle's focus wavers.

Key Battle

Bruno Guimarães vs Zian Flemming—the midfielder orchestrating Newcastle's tempo against Burnley's most lethal outlet. Guimarães (1 goal, 2 assists in five matches, 7.2 avg rating) controls the game's rhythm; Flemming (4 goals in five matches, 7.3 avg rating) thrives on chaos. If Newcastle's midfield dominates possession, they suffocate Burnley's counter-press. If Flemming finds space, Burnley's hunger becomes dangerous.

Our Prediction

Newcastle win 2-1. The Magpies control early possession through Guimarães' distribution, but Nick Pope (17 saves in four matches at 4.2 per game) is called into action repeatedly—Burnley's desperation creates openings. Malick Thiaw (2 goals in five matches, 7.6 avg rating) adds a set-piece threat. Newcastle's clinical finishing edges a match that feels closer than the scoreline suggests.