Liverpool 0 - 3 FT Nottingham Forest

Murillo's Masterclass Exposes Liverpool's Toothless Dominance

Skip It Futmetrix Score: 36/100. A tactical demolition wrapped in statistical irony—75% possession yields zero goals, while Forest's surgical efficiency delivers three.

When Possession Becomes a Liability

Liverpool controlled the tempo from kickoff, threading 617 passes through a suffocating midfield press. Yet here's the rub: Nottingham Forest turned the Reds' dominance into a liability. The Balance tilted decisively when Murillo struck in the 33rd minute—a statement goal that exposed Liverpool's defensive fragility. By halftime, Nicolò Savona had doubled the lead off Neco Williams' assist, and the Stakes had shifted seismically.

The Upset wasn't just about the scoreline. Forest absorbed 21 Liverpool shots—more than half from inside the box—yet their goalkeeper made only three saves. Liverpool's 2.02 xG evaporated into the Anfield night. Meanwhile, Forest's seven shots on target converted at a 43% rate. This wasn't luck; it was clinical ruthlessness against profligacy. The Intensity climbed with 14 corners and 36 combined shots, but only one side made their chances count.

By the 78th minute, Morgan Gibbs-White sealed the rout with Forest's third. Liverpool's form—LLWLL entering this fixture—suggested vulnerability, but few predicted this magnitude of collapse. Forest, sitting 16th with just 12 points, had executed a 53% probability upset, the kind that reshuffles mid-table narratives and haunts managers for months.

Murillo's 9.2 rating and Savona's 8.5 weren't inflated—both defenders orchestrated possession switches that turned Liverpool's 75% control into a trap. The Reds' 89% pass accuracy masked a deeper malaise: they couldn't translate territorial dominance into cutting chances. Forest's 72% pass accuracy and 25% possession told a different story—one of efficiency, timing, and cold finishing.

Desperate Times in a Survival Scramble

Average Entertainment Futmetrix Score: 38/100. A high-tension clash where safety is the only prize that matters for two clubs sliding toward the danger zone.

The Setup

Liverpool enters this late November clash in the unfamiliar shadows of the bottom half. This isn't a title charge; it’s a gritty battle to avoid a winter of discontent. The Stakes are massive for a match of this ranking. Sitting 13th, the hosts are looking to halt a slide that has seen them lose four of their last five games. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest arrive at the stadium only six points behind, knowing a win could drag the giants further into the mire. The Balance of the tie favors the hosts on paper, but their defensive record of 20 goals conceded suggests a fragility that Forest can exploit. While the overall quality is lower than usual, the Stars could still decide it; A. Mac Allister remains the heartbeat of the home midfield, while Giorgi Mamardashvili provides a safety net in goal.

Key Battle

The tactical struggle centers on the transition. Liverpool’s high defensive line has looked exposed recently, and if they cannot maintain discipline, the direct running of A. Isak will cause havoc. The visitors will rely on the vision of F. Wirtz to trigger quick breaks every time the hosts lose the ball in the middle third.

Our Prediction

Liverpool’s home advantage and superior individual quality should eventually tell in a cagey affair. They will likely dominate possession and eventually break through a stubborn low block. Expect a nervy 2-0 win for the hosts.