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Futmetrix Verdict
9
FT
Thu, Nov 6
Sturm Graz
0-0
Nottingham Forest
⚡ Intensity 7
⚖️ Balance 0
🏆 Stakes 0
🎲 Upset 0
Forest dominate but find no breakthrough.

Win Probability

  • Sturm Graz 33%
  • Draw 24%
  • Nottingham Forest 43%

Futmetrix AI estimate

Barren Draw at Merkur Arena as Forest Suffer Frustration

Skip It Futmetrix Score: 9/100. An attacking siege yielded no reward for the English side as defensive resilience trumped offensive intent on a frustrating European night in Austria.

The Austrian Wall

A cautious atmosphere enveloped the Merkur Arena as Nottingham Forest looked to assert their authority away from home. The visitors controlled possession seamlessly, holding 58% of the ball during the early exchanges, but struggled to find the decisive final pass against a highly organised Sturm Graz unit. With the Stakes heavily favouring the Premier League outfit in their pursuit of Europa League progression, the hosts opted for a pragmatic approach. They sat deep, absorbed the pressure, and invited the away side to try and break through their low block. The early tempo lacked a killer edge, turning the opening phase into a tactical chess match where defensive discipline comfortably neutralized methodical build-up play.

A One-Sided Siege

As the match progressed, the sheer volume of pressure threatened to overwhelm the Austrian defence. The Intensity picked up significantly when the visitors began to overload the flanks, turning the pitch into a half-court attacking exercise. The underlying numbers laid bare a one-sided siege: an overwhelming 1.70 expected goals compared to a paltry 0.09 for the home side, backed by a 9-3 shot advantage. Neco Williams was an absolute menace down the right channel, delivering three key passes and constantly pinning the opposition full-backs deep into their own territory. On the opposite side, Morato matched that outstanding level of performance, shutting down any rare counter-attacks before they could materialize, yet the crucial breakthrough somehow remained elusive.

Stalemate and Survival

Despite peppering the penalty area with seven shots inside the box, the English side simply could not find a way past the resolute defensive line. Arjan Malić emerged as a heroic figure for the hosts, putting in a mammoth shift to clear his lines and preserve the clean sheet against relentless waves of pressure. The Balance of play heavily favoured a visiting victory, but football is rarely dictated by possession stats alone. The final whistle confirmed a goalless stalemate, leaving the away side cemented in 13th place and comfortably inside the playoff spots. Meanwhile, the hard-fought point does little to lift the hosts from 26th, but the sheer defensive grit displayed will undoubtedly serve as a massive morale boost.

Key Questions

Why did Nottingham Forest fail to win the match?

Despite generating 1.70 expected goals and controlling 58% of possession, their finishing lacked precision against a deeply entrenched defence.

Who were the standout defensive players?

Neco Williams and Morato excelled for the visitors, while Arjan Malić delivered an outstanding performance to secure the clean sheet for the hosts.

What is the Futmetrix Score?

The Futmetrix Score is our 0-100 verdict on how entertaining a match is. We look at intensity, balance, stakes, and star quality to tell you if it's worth your time.

Match Statistics

Possession
42%
58%
Sturm Graz 42%
Nottingham Forest 58%
Shots
3
9
Sturm Graz 3
Nottingham Forest 9
Shots on Target
2
2
Sturm Graz 2
Nottingham Forest 2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.09
1.70
Sturm Graz 0.09
Nottingham Forest 1.70
Passes
400
534
Sturm Graz 400
Nottingham Forest 534
Pass Accuracy
76%
85%
Sturm Graz 76%
Nottingham Forest 85%
Corners
0
4
Sturm Graz 0
Nottingham Forest 4
Fouls
17
13
Sturm Graz 17
Nottingham Forest 13
Yellow Cards
1
1
Sturm Graz 1
Nottingham Forest 1
Red Cards
0
0
Sturm Graz 0
Nottingham Forest 0

Match Events

HT
Ryan Yates 🟨 48'
57' 🔄 N. Geyrhofer D. Lavalee
57' 🔄 M. Malone S. Jatta
57' 🔄 O. Kiteishvili A. Kayombo
J. McAtee D. Ndoye 🔄 66'
73' 🟨 Axel Kayombo
77' 🔄 T. Horvat S. Hierlander
A. Kalimuendo Z. Abbott 🔄 77'
M. Gibbs-White Murillo 🔄 77'
87' 🔄 A. Malic J. Mitchell
FT

Player Cards

Our take on every player in this match

Sturm Graz

Goalkeepers
Oliver Christensen
PENALTY HERO
PENALTY HERO
1
Pens Saved
1
Pens Saved
1
Saves
7.5
Rating
Defenders
Arjan Malic
👻 Invisible Nothing to note
Emanuel Aiwu
FRIENDLY FIRE
FRIENDLY FIRE
Pen Given
Mistake
Pen Given
Mistake
1
Fouls
6.6
Rating
Niklas Geyrhofer
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
57
Total Mins
57
Entry
Emir Karić
WALL
WALL
0
Dribbled Past
0
Dribbled Past
3
Tackles
67%
Duel Win %
Midfielders
F. Rozga
👻 Invisible Nothing to note
Tomi Horvat
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
13
Late Mins
13
Late Mins
78
Total Mins
77
Entry
Jon Gorenc Stankovič
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Jacob Hödl
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Otar Kiteishvili
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
58
Total Mins
57
Entry
Forwards
Maurice Malone
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
57
Total Mins
57
Entry
BENCH
Matteo Bignetti
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Daniil Khudyakov
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Jeyland Mitchell
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
2
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Tim Oermann
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Dimitri Lavalée
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
33
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Julius Beck
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Stefan Hierländer
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
12
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Axel Kayombo
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
32
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Seedy Jatta
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
33
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Leon Grgić
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry

Nottingham Forest

Goalkeepers
John Victor Furtado
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Defenders
Nicolò Savona
WALL
WALL
0
Dribbled Past
0
Dribbled Past
4
Tackles
50%
Duel Win %
Nikola Milenković
MAGNET
MAGNET
85
Activity
85
Activity
75
Passes
10
Duels
Morato
WALL
WALL
0
Dribbled Past
0
Dribbled Past
4
Tackles
89%
Duel Win %
Neco Williams
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
3
Key Passes
3
Key Passes
0
Assists
40%
Pass Acc
Midfielders
Ryan Yates
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
2
Shots
2
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Ibrahim Sangaré
MAGNET
MAGNET
90
Activity
90
Activity
76
Passes
14
Duels
James McAtee
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
66
Total Mins
66
Entry
Morgan Gibbs-White
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
13
Late Mins
13
Late Mins
78
Total Mins
77
Entry
Nicolás Domínguez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Forwards
Arnaud Kalimuendo
PROVOCATEUR
PROVOCATEUR
3
Fouls Won
3
Fouls Won
6
Duels Won
0
Pens Won
BENCH
Matz Sels
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Keehan Willows
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Murillo
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
12
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Willy Boly
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Zach Abbott
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
10
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Jack Thompson
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Ben Hammond
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Archie Whitehall
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Jimmy Sinclair
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Dan Ndoye
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
24
Total Mins
Started
Entry

League Standings

Pos Team P Pts GF GA GD Form
1 FC Midtjylland 4 12 11 3 +8 WFC Midtjylland 3 - 1 Celtic (06-11-2025)WMaccabi Tel Aviv 0 - 3 FC Midtjylland (23-10-2025)WNottingham Forest 2 - 3 FC Midtjylland (02-10-2025)WFC Midtjylland 2 - 0 Sturm Graz (24-09-2025)
2 SC Freiburg 4 10 8 3 +5 WNice 1 - 3 SC Freiburg (06-11-2025)WSC Freiburg 2 - 0 Utrecht (23-10-2025)DBologna 1 - 1 SC Freiburg (02-10-2025)WSC Freiburg 2 - 1 FC Basel 1893 (24-09-2025)
3 Ferencvarosi TC 4 10 8 4 +4 WFerencvarosi TC 3 - 1 Ludogorets (06-11-2025)WRed Bull Salzburg 2 - 3 Ferencvarosi TC (23-10-2025)WGenk 0 - 1 Ferencvarosi TC (02-10-2025)DFerencvarosi TC 1 - 1 Plzen (25-09-2025)
4 Celta Vigo 4 9 9 4 +5 WDinamo Zagreb 0 - 3 Celta Vigo (06-11-2025)WCelta Vigo 2 - 1 Nice (23-10-2025)WCelta Vigo 3 - 1 PAOK (02-10-2025)LVfB Stuttgart 2 - 1 Celta Vigo (25-09-2025)
5 SC Braga 4 9 8 4 +4 LSC Braga 3 - 4 Genk (06-11-2025)WSC Braga 2 - 0 FK Crvena Zvezda (23-10-2025)WCeltic 0 - 2 SC Braga (02-10-2025)WSC Braga 1 - 0 Feyenoord (24-09-2025)
6 Aston Villa 4 9 6 2 +4 WAston Villa 2 - 0 Maccabi Tel Aviv (06-11-2025)LGO Ahead Eagles 2 - 1 Aston Villa (23-10-2025)WFeyenoord 0 - 2 Aston Villa (02-10-2025)WAston Villa 1 - 0 Bologna (25-09-2025)
7 Lyon 4 9 5 2 +3 LReal Betis 2 - 0 Lyon (06-11-2025)WLyon 2 - 0 FC Basel 1893 (23-10-2025)WLyon 2 - 0 Red Bull Salzburg (02-10-2025)WUtrecht 0 - 1 Lyon (25-09-2025)
8 Real Betis 4 8 6 2 +4 WReal Betis 2 - 0 Lyon (06-11-2025)DGenk 0 - 0 Real Betis (23-10-2025)WLudogorets 0 - 2 Real Betis (02-10-2025)DReal Betis 2 - 2 Nottingham Forest (24-09-2025)
9 Plzen 4 8 6 2 +4 DPlzen 0 - 0 Fenerbahçe (06-11-2025)WAS Roma 1 - 2 Plzen (23-10-2025)WPlzen 3 - 0 Malmo FF (02-10-2025)DFerencvarosi TC 1 - 1 Plzen (25-09-2025)
10 PAOK 4 7 9 6 +3 WPAOK 4 - 0 BSC Young Boys (06-11-2025)WLille 3 - 4 PAOK (23-10-2025)LCelta Vigo 3 - 1 PAOK (02-10-2025)DPAOK 0 - 0 Maccabi Tel Aviv (24-09-2025)
11 Brann 4 7 5 2 +3 DBologna 0 - 0 Brann (06-11-2025)WBrann 3 - 0 Rangers (23-10-2025)WBrann 1 - 0 Utrecht (02-10-2025)LLille 2 - 1 Brann (25-09-2025)
12 Dinamo Zagreb 4 7 7 6 +1 LDinamo Zagreb 0 - 3 Celta Vigo (06-11-2025)DMalmo FF 1 - 1 Dinamo Zagreb (23-10-2025)WMaccabi Tel Aviv 1 - 3 Dinamo Zagreb (02-10-2025)WDinamo Zagreb 3 - 1 Fenerbahçe (24-09-2025)
13 Genk 4 7 5 4 +1 WSC Braga 3 - 4 Genk (06-11-2025)DGenk 0 - 0 Real Betis (23-10-2025)LGenk 0 - 1 Ferencvarosi TC (02-10-2025)WRangers 0 - 1 Genk (25-09-2025)
14 FC Porto 4 7 4 4 0 DUtrecht 1 - 1 FC Porto (06-11-2025)LNottingham Forest 2 - 0 FC Porto (23-10-2025)WFC Porto 2 - 1 FK Crvena Zvezda (02-10-2025)WRed Bull Salzburg 0 - 1 FC Porto (25-09-2025)
15 Fenerbahçe 4 7 4 4 0 DPlzen 0 - 0 Fenerbahçe (06-11-2025)WFenerbahçe 1 - 0 VfB Stuttgart (23-10-2025)WFenerbahçe 2 - 1 Nice (02-10-2025)LDinamo Zagreb 3 - 1 Fenerbahçe (24-09-2025)
16 Panathinaikos 4 6 7 6 +1 WMalmo FF 0 - 1 Panathinaikos (06-11-2025)LFeyenoord 3 - 1 Panathinaikos (23-10-2025)LPanathinaikos 1 - 2 GO Ahead Eagles (02-10-2025)WBSC Young Boys 1 - 4 Panathinaikos (25-09-2025)
17 FC Basel 1893 4 6 6 5 +1 WFC Basel 1893 3 - 1 FCSB (06-11-2025)LLyon 2 - 0 FC Basel 1893 (23-10-2025)WFC Basel 1893 2 - 0 VfB Stuttgart (02-10-2025)LSC Freiburg 2 - 1 FC Basel 1893 (24-09-2025)
18 AS Roma 4 6 5 4 +1 WRangers 0 - 2 AS Roma (06-11-2025)LAS Roma 1 - 2 Plzen (23-10-2025)LAS Roma 0 - 1 Lille (02-10-2025)WNice 1 - 2 AS Roma (24-09-2025)
19 Lille 4 6 6 6 0 LFK Crvena Zvezda 1 - 0 Lille (06-11-2025)LLille 3 - 4 PAOK (23-10-2025)WAS Roma 0 - 1 Lille (02-10-2025)WLille 2 - 1 Brann (25-09-2025)
20 VfB Stuttgart 4 6 4 4 0 WVfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 Feyenoord (06-11-2025)LFenerbahçe 1 - 0 VfB Stuttgart (23-10-2025)LFC Basel 1893 2 - 0 VfB Stuttgart (02-10-2025)WVfB Stuttgart 2 - 1 Celta Vigo (25-09-2025)
21 GO Ahead Eagles 4 6 4 5 -1 LRed Bull Salzburg 2 - 0 GO Ahead Eagles (06-11-2025)WGO Ahead Eagles 2 - 1 Aston Villa (23-10-2025)WPanathinaikos 1 - 2 GO Ahead Eagles (02-10-2025)LGO Ahead Eagles 0 - 1 FCSB (25-09-2025)
22 BSC Young Boys 4 6 6 10 -4 LPAOK 4 - 0 BSC Young Boys (06-11-2025)WBSC Young Boys 3 - 2 Ludogorets (23-10-2025)WFCSB 0 - 2 BSC Young Boys (02-10-2025)LBSC Young Boys 1 - 4 Panathinaikos (25-09-2025)
23 Nottingham Forest 4 5 6 5 +1 DSturm Graz 0 - 0 Nottingham Forest (06-11-2025)WNottingham Forest 2 - 0 FC Porto (23-10-2025)LNottingham Forest 2 - 3 FC Midtjylland (02-10-2025)DReal Betis 2 - 2 Nottingham Forest (24-09-2025)
24 Bologna 4 5 3 3 0 DBologna 0 - 0 Brann (06-11-2025)WFCSB 1 - 2 Bologna (23-10-2025)DBologna 1 - 1 SC Freiburg (02-10-2025)LAston Villa 1 - 0 Bologna (25-09-2025)
25 FK Crvena Zvezda 4 4 3 5 -2 WFK Crvena Zvezda 1 - 0 Lille (06-11-2025)LSC Braga 2 - 0 FK Crvena Zvezda (23-10-2025)LFC Porto 2 - 1 FK Crvena Zvezda (02-10-2025)DFK Crvena Zvezda 1 - 1 Celtic (24-09-2025)
26 Sturm Graz 4 4 3 5 -2 DSturm Graz 0 - 0 Nottingham Forest (06-11-2025)LCeltic 2 - 1 Sturm Graz (23-10-2025)WSturm Graz 2 - 1 Rangers (02-10-2025)LFC Midtjylland 2 - 0 Sturm Graz (24-09-2025)
27 Celtic 4 4 4 7 -3 LFC Midtjylland 3 - 1 Celtic (06-11-2025)WCeltic 2 - 1 Sturm Graz (23-10-2025)LCeltic 0 - 2 SC Braga (02-10-2025)DFK Crvena Zvezda 1 - 1 Celtic (24-09-2025)
28 Red Bull Salzburg 4 3 4 6 -2 WRed Bull Salzburg 2 - 0 GO Ahead Eagles (06-11-2025)LRed Bull Salzburg 2 - 3 Ferencvarosi TC (23-10-2025)LLyon 2 - 0 Red Bull Salzburg (02-10-2025)LRed Bull Salzburg 0 - 1 FC Porto (25-09-2025)
29 Feyenoord 4 3 3 6 -3 LVfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 Feyenoord (06-11-2025)WFeyenoord 3 - 1 Panathinaikos (23-10-2025)LFeyenoord 0 - 2 Aston Villa (02-10-2025)LSC Braga 1 - 0 Feyenoord (24-09-2025)
30 Ludogorets 4 3 5 9 -4 LFerencvarosi TC 3 - 1 Ludogorets (06-11-2025)LBSC Young Boys 3 - 2 Ludogorets (23-10-2025)LLudogorets 0 - 2 Real Betis (02-10-2025)WMalmo FF 1 - 2 Ludogorets (24-09-2025)
31 FCSB 4 3 3 7 -4 LFC Basel 1893 3 - 1 FCSB (06-11-2025)LFCSB 1 - 2 Bologna (23-10-2025)LFCSB 0 - 2 BSC Young Boys (02-10-2025)WGO Ahead Eagles 0 - 1 FCSB (25-09-2025)
32 Utrecht 4 1 1 5 -4 DUtrecht 1 - 1 FC Porto (06-11-2025)LSC Freiburg 2 - 0 Utrecht (23-10-2025)LBrann 1 - 0 Utrecht (02-10-2025)LUtrecht 0 - 1 Lyon (25-09-2025)
33 Malmo FF 4 1 2 7 -5 LMalmo FF 0 - 1 Panathinaikos (06-11-2025)DMalmo FF 1 - 1 Dinamo Zagreb (23-10-2025)LPlzen 3 - 0 Malmo FF (02-10-2025)LMalmo FF 1 - 2 Ludogorets (24-09-2025)
34 Maccabi Tel Aviv 4 1 1 8 -7 LAston Villa 2 - 0 Maccabi Tel Aviv (06-11-2025)LMaccabi Tel Aviv 0 - 3 FC Midtjylland (23-10-2025)LMaccabi Tel Aviv 1 - 3 Dinamo Zagreb (02-10-2025)DPAOK 0 - 0 Maccabi Tel Aviv (24-09-2025)
35 Nice 4 0 4 9 -5 LNice 1 - 3 SC Freiburg (06-11-2025)LCelta Vigo 2 - 1 Nice (23-10-2025)LFenerbahçe 2 - 1 Nice (02-10-2025)LNice 1 - 2 AS Roma (24-09-2025)
36 Rangers 4 0 1 8 -7 LRangers 0 - 2 AS Roma (06-11-2025)LBrann 3 - 0 Rangers (23-10-2025)LSturm Graz 2 - 1 Rangers (02-10-2025)LRangers 0 - 1 Genk (25-09-2025)

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