Union Berlin 3 - 1 FT RB Leipzig

Union's Uprising: How Berlin Buried Leipzig's Title Dreams

Highly Entertaining Futmetrix Score: 70/100. An underdog masterclass—Union Berlin dismantled second-placed RB Leipzig 3-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, exposing the fragility of the title race with a performance that rewrote the narrative.

The Seven-Minute Earthquake

For 56 minutes, this was a tactical stalemate. Then Union ignited. O. Burke broke the deadlock (57'), and chaos erupted. Within seven minutes, three goals crashed through: Burke, T. Gomis for Leipzig (60'), and I. Ansah (64'). The intensity was suffocating—three lead changes, three different scorelines, and Union's balance tilting decisively in their favour. Leipzig's possession (63%) meant nothing. Union's clinical finishing (3 goals from 11 shots) meant everything.

Köhn's Masterclass in the Middle

Midfielder Derrick Köhn was the architect of Union's suffocation. His 8.0 rating masked the precision of his pressing triggers and positional intelligence. Paired with defender Leopold Querfeld (7.6), Köhn built a wall that Leipzig—despite 541 passes and 84% accuracy—could not breach. Union's 11 shots versus Leipzig's 9 told the real story: the visitors were suffocated into inaccuracy. Only 3 of their 9 shots found the target. Union's Expected Goals (1.14) versus Leipzig's (0.59) revealed the stakes: Berlin was sharper, hungrier, more ruthless.

The Super-Sub Gambit

C. Trimmel entered in the 59th minute and immediately changed the game with the assist for Ansah's goal. Meanwhile, Leipzig's T. Gomis came off the bench in the 58th minute and scored—but one goal wasn't enough to stem the tide. T. Skarke sealed it in the 93rd minute, courtesy of A. Ilic's assist. Union's substitutes delivered; Leipzig's could not.

The Upset Factor

Union entered as eighth-placed (18 points) versus Leipzig's second (29 points). The probability gap was 22%—a genuine underdog scenario. Yet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Union dismantled the narrative. They suffocated possession, punished inefficiency, and capitalized on Leipzig's mental collapse during those seven devastating minutes. This wasn't luck; it was a blueprint for how lower-table sides exploit title contenders' fragility. Leipzig's form (LWDWL) suddenly looked ominous. Union's (WLLWD) suddenly looked prophetic.

Title Contenders Collide With Strugglers at the Alten Försterei

Worth Watching Futmetrix Score: 71/100. RB Leipzig's championship credentials face a test of ruthlessness against Union Berlin, whose survival instinct may prove the only weapon at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.

The Setup

The Balance here is stark: Leipzig sit second with 29 points and nine wins, whilst Union languish in 12th with just 15 points. The Stars overwhelmingly favour the visitors—Yan Diomande has plundered five goals in five games, a goal-per-match rate that's devastating at this level. Yet Union's Frederik Rønnow has kept two clean sheets in his last five outings, proof the defence isn't entirely porous.

Key Battle

Leipzig's tempo-control through Xavi Simons and Christoph Baumgartner will suffocate Union's midfield. The hosts must compress space, invite pressure, and hunt transitions—a classic underdog script against a side that's lost just twice in 13 matches.

Our Prediction

Leipzig 2–1. The visitors impose early control; Diomande and Lois Openda break through. Union snatch one on the counter, but Péter Gulácsi's three clean sheets in five games signal he'll shut the door when it matters.