Burnley 1 - 1 FT Nottingham Forest

Williams' 90-Second Ambush Meets Burnley's Instant Defiance

Skip It Futmetrix Score: 30/100. Two teams in freefall traded early blows, then settled into a stalemate that satisfied neither.

When Early Momentum Evaporates

Nottingham Forest arrived at Turf Moor with a statement: Neco Williams struck in the 2nd minute, a lightning-fast opener that suggested a team ready to climb out of the relegation mire. The Intensity was suffocating from the first whistle—Forest dominated possession (63%) and dictated terms with 17 shots, 8 on target. But Balance shifted seismically 18 minutes later.

Jaidon Anthony equalized off Lyle Foster's assist in the 20th minute, and suddenly Burnley—a team with one win in five—had clawed back parity. What followed was a masterclass in defensive attrition: 29 combined shots, yet only two found the net. Goalkeepers made 11 saves between them, a desperate rearguard action that defined the afternoon's narrative.

The Stakes were suffocating. Burnley sat 16th with four points; Forest 15th with five. Both teams are drowning, and draws feel like defeats when survival is the only objective. Yet neither possessed the clinical edge to separate themselves. Forest's superior ball retention (90% pass accuracy, 628 passes) counted for nothing against Burnley's compact shape. The home side absorbed 17 shots with the discipline of a team playing for its life, while Burnley's 12 attempts—despite 37% possession—reflected a counter-attack mentality that never quite clicked.

The narrative arc flatlined after the 20th minute. No late drama. No substitutes changed the game's trajectory. No red cards to spice the narrative. Just two teams grinding toward a point that feels hollow for both. Forest will regret not converting their dominance; Burnley will view the draw as a reprieve from the executioner's block, yet still insufficient.

Survival Stakes Peak Early at the stadium

Skip It Futmetrix Score: 17/100. This is a high-tension encounter where the fear of falling further into the abyss outweighs the ambition for expansive football.

The Setup

As the Premier League campaign reaches its fifth round on September 20, 2025, Burnley find themselves in desperate need of a spark. Currently languishing in 19th place with just ten points from 13 matches, their Form has been concerning, characterized by four losses in their last five outings. Conversely, Nottingham Forest sits 16th, teetering just above the drop zone. The Stakes are undeniably high for this early in the season; a win for either side provides significant breathing room, while a loss cements their status as primary candidates for the drop.

Key Battle

Without specific individual matchups to highlight, the game will be decided by the tactical Balance between Burnley's home midfield and the Nottingham Forest defensive unit. Burnley will likely attempt to dominate possession, looking to find gaps in a Forest side that has shown a tendency to sit deep when playing away. The struggle will be one of attrition, as Forest looks to exploit any defensive lapses on the counter-attack while Burnley tries to break a stubborn low block.

Our Prediction

The match is likely to unfold as a cagey, tactical stalemate. Burnley will see more of the ball but may lack the clinical touch required to put the game to bed early. Forest’s priority will be defensive stability, aiming to secure at least a point on the road. We expect a 1-1 draw, a result that reflects the 17th vs 15th battle and keeps both teams looking over their shoulders. The lack of Stars in peak goal-scoring form suggests a low-scoring afternoon at the stadium.