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Futmetrix Verdict
32
FT
Sun, Mar 15
Los Angeles FC
2-0
St. Louis City
⚡ Intensity 26
⚖️ Balance 13
🏆 Stakes 44
🎲 Upset 0
Late Choinière double buries St. Louis.

Win Probability

  • Los Angeles FC 65%
  • Draw 20%
  • St. Louis City 15%

Futmetrix AI estimate

Ruthless LAFC Punish Wasteful St. Louis

Skip It Futmetrix Score: 32/100. M. Choiniere's late double delivered a harsh lesson in finishing, leaving St. Louis City with a steep climb ahead in the second leg.

Opening Act

BMO Stadium witnessed a tense and physical opening exchange. St. Louis City arrived with clear intent, shrugging off their underdog status on the road. The visitors controlled possession at 55 percent, moving the ball with purpose and generating genuine pressure. High Intensity defined this early phase. A combined 34 shots were attempted throughout the match, turning the pitch into a busy battleground. St. Louis pushed hard, racking up 18 of those attempts and leaning heavily on their set-piece execution. With 14 combined corners, the visitors kept asking questions of the Los Angeles backline. João Klauss and the St. Louis attack found spaces, but their final touch constantly deserted them. They had the ball, they had the territory, but they completely lacked the killer instinct needed in elimination games.

The Pivot

The match hung in the Balance for over an hour. St. Louis accumulated a respectable 1.15 expected goals, yet their dominance never materialized on the scoreboard. They failed to convert pressure into points. Then, the script flipped in a devastating eight-minute window. Los Angeles FC absorbed the pressure and countered with lethal precision. In the 73rd minute, Mathieu Choinière broke the deadlock, finding the back of the net to shatter the visitors' momentum. Before St. Louis could properly regroup, Choinière struck again at the 81-minute mark to complete his hero brace. That second goal was a genuine gut punch. It shifted the entire dynamic of this two-leg tie, transforming a frustrating home stalemate into a masterclass in opportunistic finishing against the run of play.

Resolution

This 2-0 finish secures a massive advantage for the hosts. With these knockout Stakes, LAFC heads into the May 14th return leg firmly in the driver's seat. Ryan Porteous anchored the defense with an outstanding Man of the Match performance. He led a backline that absorbed endless St. Louis pressure, blocked key shots, and ultimately secured a vital clean sheet. St. Louis now faces an incredibly steep uphill battle when they return home for the second leg. They played well enough between the boxes, but football is decided inside them. Los Angeles FC capitalized on their few clear chances, proving exactly why they sit at the top of the table. The visitors need a dramatic turnaround in May to keep their season alive.

Key Questions

What made Mathieu Choinière the Man of the Match?

His clinical finishing changed the game. Choinière scored a decisive late brace in an eight-minute window, turning a tense stalemate into a commanding first-leg victory.

What is the Futmetrix Score?

The Futmetrix Score is our 0-100 verdict on how entertaining a match is. We look at intensity, balance, stakes, and star quality to tell you if it's worth your time.

Match Statistics

Possession
45%
55%
Los Angeles FC 45%
St. Louis City 55%
Shots
16
18
Los Angeles FC 16
St. Louis City 18
Shots on Target
5
4
Los Angeles FC 5
St. Louis City 4
Expected Goals (xG)
0.82
1.15
Los Angeles FC 0.82
St. Louis City 1.15
Passes
441
530
Los Angeles FC 441
St. Louis City 530
Pass Accuracy
86%
87%
Los Angeles FC 86%
St. Louis City 87%
Corners
5
9
Los Angeles FC 5
St. Louis City 9
Fouls
12
9
Los Angeles FC 12
St. Louis City 9
Yellow Cards
0
0
Los Angeles FC 0
St. Louis City 0
Red Cards
0
0
Los Angeles FC 0
St. Louis City 0

Match Events

HT
C. Teuchert S. Cordova 🔄 46'
46' 🔄 M. Delgado T. Tillman
46' 🔄 D. Martinez T. Boyd
71' 🔄 Son Heung-Min A. Boudri
73' M. Choiniere
S. Becher B. McSorley 🔄 77'
81' M. Choiniere
Rafael Santos S. Jeong 🔄 82'
D. Edelman Celio Pompeu 🔄 82'
86' 🔄 D. Bouanga J. Terry
88' 🔄 R. Raposo R. Hollingshead
C. Wallem M. Joyner 🔄 90'+1
FT

Player Cards

Our take on every player in this match

Los Angeles FC

Goalkeepers
Hugo Lloris
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Defenders
Ryan Raposo
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
2
Key Passes
2
Key Passes
0
Assists
24%
Pass Acc
Ryan Porteous
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Nkosi Tafari
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Eddie Segura
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Midfielders
Mathieu Choinière
CLOSER
CLOSER
1
Late Goals
1
Late Goals
0
Late Assists
75
Minute
Marco Delgado
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
46
Entry
David Martínez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
46
Entry
Son Heung-min
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
71
Total Mins
71
Entry
Denis Bouanga
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
3
Shots
3
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Forwards
Nathan Ordaz
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
BENCH
Thomas Hasal
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Sergi Palencia
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Ryan Hollingshead
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
10
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Kenny Nielsen
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Artem Smolyakov
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Timothy Tillman
ENFORCER
ENFORCER
4
Tackles
4
Tackles
5
Duels Won
83%
Win %
Amin Boudri
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
19
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Jude Terry
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
12
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Tyler Boyd
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
Started
Entry

St. Louis City

Goalkeepers
Roman Bürki
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Defenders
Jaziel Orozco
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
1
Shots
1
Shots
0
Goals
0
On Target
Timo Baumgartl
SHIELD
SHIELD
3
Blocks
3
Blocks
1
Interceptions
0
Tackles
Dante Polvara
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Midfielders
Rafael Santos
👻 Invisible Nothing to note
Conrad Wallem
NPC
NPC
89
Minutes
89
Minutes
29%
Pass Acc
6.2
Rating
Daniel Edelman
SHIELD
SHIELD
3
Blocks
3
Blocks
0
Interceptions
2
Tackles
Chris Durkin
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Forwards
Marcel Hartel
MAGNET
MAGNET
54
Activity
54
Activity
51
Passes
3
Duels
Cedric Teuchert
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
46
Entry
Simon Becher
PROVOCATEUR
PROVOCATEUR
4
Fouls Won
4
Fouls Won
6
Duels Won
0
Pens Won
BENCH
Ben Lundt
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Lukas MacNaughton
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Mamadou Fall
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Miguel Perez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Célio Pompeu
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
8
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Mykhi Joyner
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
1
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Sergio Córdova
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Jeong Sang-bin
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
8
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Brendan McSorley
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
13
Total Mins
Started
Entry

Head to Head

Date Home Score Away Competition Venue
03/15/2026 Los Angeles FC 2 - 0 St. Louis City Major League Soccer BMO Stadium
09/28/2025 St. Louis City 0 - 3 Los Angeles FC Major League Soccer Energizer Park
04/27/2025 Los Angeles FC 2 - 2 St. Louis City Major League Soccer Banc of California Stadium
10/03/2024 Los Angeles FC 1 - 0 St. Louis City Major League Soccer BMO Stadium
05/16/2024 St. Louis City 0 - 2 Los Angeles FC Major League Soccer CITYPARK
02/07/2024 St. Louis City 1 - 0 Los Angeles FC Friendlies Clubs TBC
09/21/2023 St. Louis City 0 - 0 Los Angeles FC Major League Soccer CITYPARK
07/13/2023 Los Angeles FC 3 - 0 St. Louis City Major League Soccer BMO Stadium
03/15/2026
Major League Soccer BMO Stadium
09/28/2025
Major League Soccer Energizer Park
04/27/2025
Major League Soccer Banc of California Stadium
10/03/2024
Major League Soccer BMO Stadium
05/16/2024
Major League Soccer CITYPARK
02/07/2024
Friendlies Clubs TBC
09/21/2023
Major League Soccer CITYPARK
07/13/2023
Major League Soccer BMO Stadium
Los Angeles FC Win
St. Louis City Win
Draw

League Standings

Pos Team P Pts GF GA GD Form
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 3 9 11 1 +10 WVancouver Whitecaps 6 - 0 Minnesota United FC (15-03-2026)WPortland Timbers 1 - 4 Vancouver Whitecaps (08-03-2026)WVancouver Whitecaps 1 - 0 Real Salt Lake (22-02-2026)
2 Los Angeles FC 3 9 5 0 +5 WLos Angeles FC 2 - 0 St. Louis City (15-03-2026)WLos Angeles FC 1 - 0 FC Dallas (08-03-2026)WHouston Dynamo 0 - 2 Los Angeles FC (01-03-2026)
3 Seattle Sounders 4 9 5 2 +3 WSan Jose Earthquakes 0 - 1 Seattle Sounders (15-03-2026)WSt. Louis City 0 - 1 Seattle Sounders (08-03-2026)LReal Salt Lake 2 - 1 Seattle Sounders (01-03-2026)WSeattle Sounders 2 - 0 Colorado Rapids (23-02-2026)
4 San Diego 3 7 6 3 +3 DFC Dallas 3 - 3 San Diego (15-03-2026)WSporting Kansas City 0 - 1 San Diego (08-03-2026)WSan Diego 2 - 0 St. Louis City (02-03-2026)
5 Colorado Rapids 3 6 6 3 +3 WColorado Rapids 4 - 1 Los Angeles Galaxy (08-03-2026)WColorado Rapids 2 - 0 Portland Timbers (28-02-2026)LSeattle Sounders 2 - 0 Colorado Rapids (23-02-2026)
6 Real Salt Lake 3 6 4 3 +1 WReal Salt Lake 2 - 1 Austin (15-03-2026)WReal Salt Lake 2 - 1 Seattle Sounders (01-03-2026)LVancouver Whitecaps 1 - 0 Real Salt Lake (22-02-2026)
7 San Jose Earthquakes 2 3 3 1 +2 LSan Jose Earthquakes 0 - 1 Seattle Sounders (15-03-2026)WSan Jose Earthquakes 3 - 0 Sporting Kansas City (22-02-2026)
8 Houston Dynamo 2 3 3 4 -1 WHouston Dynamo 3 - 2 Portland Timbers (15-03-2026)LHouston Dynamo 0 - 2 Los Angeles FC (01-03-2026)
9 Sporting Kansas City 3 3 2 5 -3 WLos Angeles Galaxy 1 - 2 Sporting Kansas City (15-03-2026)LSporting Kansas City 0 - 1 San Diego (08-03-2026)LSan Jose Earthquakes 3 - 0 Sporting Kansas City (22-02-2026)
10 FC Dallas 2 1 3 4 -1 DFC Dallas 3 - 3 San Diego (15-03-2026)LLos Angeles FC 1 - 0 FC Dallas (08-03-2026)
11 Austin 2 1 3 4 -1 LReal Salt Lake 2 - 1 Austin (15-03-2026)DAustin 2 - 2 Minnesota United FC (22-02-2026)
12 Minnesota United FC 2 1 2 8 -6 LVancouver Whitecaps 6 - 0 Minnesota United FC (15-03-2026)DAustin 2 - 2 Minnesota United FC (22-02-2026)
13 Los Angeles Galaxy 2 0 2 6 -4 LLos Angeles Galaxy 1 - 2 Sporting Kansas City (15-03-2026)LColorado Rapids 4 - 1 Los Angeles Galaxy (08-03-2026)
14 St. Louis City 3 0 0 5 -5 LLos Angeles FC 2 - 0 St. Louis City (15-03-2026)LSt. Louis City 0 - 1 Seattle Sounders (08-03-2026)LSan Diego 2 - 0 St. Louis City (02-03-2026)
15 Portland Timbers 3 0 3 9 -6 LHouston Dynamo 3 - 2 Portland Timbers (15-03-2026)LPortland Timbers 1 - 4 Vancouver Whitecaps (08-03-2026)LColorado Rapids 2 - 0 Portland Timbers (28-02-2026)

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