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Futmetrix Verdict
31
FT
Fri, Sep 19
Deutsch
VfB Stuttgart
2-0
FC St. Pauli
⚡ Intensity 17
⚖️ Balance 13
🏆 Stakes 33
🎲 Upset 80
Stuttgart dominates, St. Pauli left behind

Win Probability

  • VfB Stuttgart 16%
  • Draw 24%
  • FC St. Pauli 60%

Futmetrix AI estimate

Stuttgart's Clinical Masterclass Breaks St. Pauli's Resistance at MHP Arena

Skip It Futmetrix Score: 31/100. This six-pointer saw Stuttgart impose their Intensity with surgical precision, while St. Pauli, despite Vasilj's heroics, simply couldn't match the hosts' control and cutting edge.

Stuttgart's Stranglehold at the MHP Arena

From the opening whistle, VfB Stuttgart dictated proceedings. Fifty-four percent possession and 17 shots (8 on target) painted a picture of relentless pressure. The Balance was skewed decisively in the hosts' favour. Demirovic struck first after Leweling's assist in the 43rd minute—a reward for Stuttgart's methodical build-up play. The striker doubled the advantage on the hour mark, this time setting up El Khannouss for the second. An 88 percent pass accuracy (462 of 528 passes) underscored their control; this wasn't luck, it was suffocation by design.

Vasilj's Defiance Against the Tide

St. Pauli showed character but lacked the Stakes to truly threaten. Just nine shots (two on target) and an xG of 0.95 told the story—the visitors were outgunned. Nikola Vasilj emerged as their sole bright spark, making six saves and denying a penalty (rating: 8.0). His performance was a masterclass in damage limitation, yet it merely delayed the inevitable. With 46 percent possession and 77 percent pass accuracy, St. Pauli's build-up lacked tempo and incision. They were chasing shadows for 90 minutes.

Chabot's Defensive Fortress

Jeff Chabot was Stuttgart's rock. The defender (rating: 8.3) orchestrated the backline with authority, suffocating St. Pauli's strikers before they could breathe. Twelve combined corners reflected Stuttgart's relentless attacking Intensity—set-piece pressure that St. Pauli's defence simply couldn't breach. Vasilj's six saves and penalty heroics were the only glimmers of hope for the visitors in an otherwise one-sided affair.

Key Questions

How did Stuttgart dominate the MHP Arena?

54% possession, 17 shots, 88% pass accuracy. Demirovic and El Khannouss capitalised on structured play. St. Pauli never gained a foothold.

Did Vasilj's penalty save change the match?

No—it merely prevented 3:0. Stuttgart were already 2:0 up and in complete control. Vasilj saved pride, not the result.

Does St. Pauli stay in the top five?

Yes—7 points from four matches keeps them fifth. This loss stings, but their record remains solid for now.

What is the Futmetrix Score?

The Futmetrix Score is our 0-100 verdict on how entertaining a match is. We look at intensity, balance, stakes, and star quality to tell you if it's worth your time.

Match Statistics

Possession
54%
46%
VfB Stuttgart 54%
FC St. Pauli 46%
Shots
17
9
VfB Stuttgart 17
FC St. Pauli 9
Shots on Target
8
2
VfB Stuttgart 8
FC St. Pauli 2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.11
0.95
VfB Stuttgart 2.11
FC St. Pauli 0.95
Passes
528
439
VfB Stuttgart 528
FC St. Pauli 439
Pass Accuracy
88%
77%
VfB Stuttgart 88%
FC St. Pauli 77%
Corners
8
4
VfB Stuttgart 8
FC St. Pauli 4
Fouls
13
15
VfB Stuttgart 13
FC St. Pauli 15
Yellow Cards
0
2
VfB Stuttgart 0
FC St. Pauli 2
Red Cards
0
0
VfB Stuttgart 0
FC St. Pauli 0

Match Events

James Sands 🟨 40'
43' E. Demirovic (J. Leweling)
HT
50' B. El Khannouss (E. Demirovic)
A. Hountondji O. Afolayan 🔄 62'
M. Pereira Lage M. Kaars 🔄 62'
Oladapo Afolayan 🟨 67'
73' 🔄 T. Tomas C. Fuhrich
D. Sinani C. Metcalfe 🔄 74'
A. Dzwigala L. Ritzka 🔄 82'
M. Saliakas A. Pyrka 🔄 82'
84' 🔄 M. Mittelstadt R. Hendriks
84' 🔄 E. Demirovic B. Bouanani
90'+2 🔄 J. Leweling N. Nartey
90'+2 🔄 C. Andres A. Karazor
FT

Player Cards

Our take on every player in this match

VfB Stuttgart

Goalkeepers
Alexander Nübel
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Defenders
Lorenz Assignon
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Finn Jeltsch
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Julian Chabot
MAGNET
MAGNET
89
Activity
89
Activity
76
Passes
13
Duels
Maximilian Mittelstädt
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
2
Key Passes
2
Key Passes
0
Assists
52%
Pass Acc
Midfielders
José María Andrés
SWEEPER
SWEEPER
6
Cleanups
6
Cleanups
5
Interceptions
1
Blocks
Angelo Stiller
MAGNET
MAGNET
91
Activity
91
Activity
76
Passes
15
Duels
Tiago Tomás
PROVOCATEUR
PROVOCATEUR
4
Fouls Won
4
Fouls Won
10
Duels Won
1
Pens Won
Bilal El Khannouss
SNIPER
SNIPER
50%
Conversion
50%
Conversion
1
Goals
2
Shots
Jamie Leweling
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
4
Key Passes
4
Key Passes
1
Assists
17%
Pass Acc
Forwards
Ermedin Demirović
SNIPER
SNIPER
50%
Conversion
50%
Conversion
1
Goals
2
Shots
BENCH
Stefan Drljača
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Pascal Stenzel
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Josha Vagnoman
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Ramon Hendriks
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
11
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Ameen Al Dakhil
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Nikolas Nartey
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
1
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Atakan Karazor
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
1
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Chris Führich
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
17
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Badredine Bouanani
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
11
Total Mins
Started
Entry

FC St. Pauli

Goalkeepers
Nikola Vasilj
PENALTY HERO
PENALTY HERO
1
Pens Saved
1
Pens Saved
6
Saves
8
Rating
Defenders
Hauke Wahl
WALL
WALL
0
Dribbled Past
0
Dribbled Past
2
Tackles
83%
Duel Win %
Eric Smith
FRIENDLY FIRE
FRIENDLY FIRE
Pen Given
Mistake
Pen Given
Mistake
1
Fouls
5.9
Rating
Adam Dźwigała
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
8
Late Mins
8
Late Mins
82
Total Mins
82
Entry
Midfielders
Emmanouil Saliakas
ENFORCER
ENFORCER
3
Tackles
3
Tackles
4
Duels Won
100%
Win %
James Sands
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Joel Chima Fujita
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
3
Key Passes
3
Key Passes
0
Assists
46%
Pass Acc
Louis Oppie
PROVOCATEUR
PROVOCATEUR
2
Fouls Won
2
Fouls Won
2
Duels Won
0
Pens Won
Forwards
Danel Sinani
MAGNET
MAGNET
47
Activity
47
Activity
40
Passes
7
Duels
Andréas Hountondji
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
62
Total Mins
62
Entry
Mathias Pereira Lage
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
62
Total Mins
62
Entry
BENCH
Ben Voll
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Arkadiusz Pyrka
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
8
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Lars Ritzka
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
8
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Jannik Robatsch
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Melker Ahlstrand
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Connor Metcalfe
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
16
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Nick Schmidt
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Oladapo Afolayan
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
28
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Martijn Kaars
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
28
Total Mins
Started
Entry

Head to Head

Date Home Score Away Competition Venue
09/19/2025 VfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 FC St. Pauli Bundesliga MHPArena
05/03/2025 FC St. Pauli 0 - 1 VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga Millerntor-Stadion
12/21/2024 VfB Stuttgart 0 - 1 FC St. Pauli Bundesliga MHPArena
02/01/2020 FC St. Pauli 1 - 1 VfB Stuttgart 2. Bundesliga Millerntor-Stadion
08/17/2019 VfB Stuttgart 2 - 1 FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga Mercedes-Benz-Arena
01/29/2017 FC St. Pauli 0 - 1 VfB Stuttgart 2. Bundesliga Millerntor-Stadion
09/19/2025
Bundesliga MHPArena
05/03/2025
Bundesliga Millerntor-Stadion
12/21/2024
Bundesliga MHPArena
02/01/2020
2. Bundesliga Millerntor-Stadion
08/17/2019
2. Bundesliga Mercedes-Benz-Arena
01/29/2017
2. Bundesliga Millerntor-Stadion
VfB Stuttgart Win
FC St. Pauli Win
Draw

League Standings

Pos Team P Pts GF GA GD Form
1 Bayern München 4 12 18 3 +15 W1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 4 Bayern München (20-09-2025)WBayern München 5 - 0 Hamburger SV (13-09-2025)WFC Augsburg 2 - 3 Bayern München (30-08-2025)WBayern München 6 - 0 RB Leipzig (22-08-2025)
2 Borussia Dortmund 4 10 9 3 +6 WBorussia Dortmund 1 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg (21-09-2025)W1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund (13-09-2025)WBorussia Dortmund 3 - 0 Union Berlin (31-08-2025)DFC St. Pauli 3 - 3 Borussia Dortmund (23-08-2025)
3 RB Leipzig 4 9 6 7 -1 WRB Leipzig 3 - 1 1. FC Köln (20-09-2025)WFSV Mainz 05 0 - 1 RB Leipzig (13-09-2025)WRB Leipzig 2 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim (30-08-2025)LBayern München 6 - 0 RB Leipzig (22-08-2025)
4 1. FC Köln 4 7 9 7 +2 LRB Leipzig 3 - 1 1. FC Köln (20-09-2025)DVfL Wolfsburg 3 - 3 1. FC Köln (13-09-2025)W1. FC Köln 4 - 1 SC Freiburg (31-08-2025)WFSV Mainz 05 0 - 1 1. FC Köln (24-08-2025)
5 FC St. Pauli 4 7 7 6 +1 LVfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 FC St. Pauli (19-09-2025)WFC St. Pauli 2 - 1 FC Augsburg (14-09-2025)WHamburger SV 0 - 2 FC St. Pauli (29-08-2025)DFC St. Pauli 3 - 3 Borussia Dortmund (23-08-2025)
6 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 6 11 9 +2 LEintracht Frankfurt 3 - 4 Union Berlin (21-09-2025)LBayer Leverkusen 3 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt (12-09-2025)W1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt (30-08-2025)WEintracht Frankfurt 4 - 1 Werder Bremen (23-08-2025)
7 SC Freiburg 4 6 8 8 0 WWerder Bremen 0 - 3 SC Freiburg (20-09-2025)WSC Freiburg 3 - 1 VfB Stuttgart (13-09-2025)L1. FC Köln 4 - 1 SC Freiburg (31-08-2025)LSC Freiburg 1 - 3 FC Augsburg (23-08-2025)
8 VfL Wolfsburg 6 6 8 8 0 LSC Paderborn 07 2 - 1 (AET) VfL Wolfsburg (25-05-2026)DVfL Wolfsburg 0 - 0 SC Paderborn 07 (21-05-2026)LBorussia Dortmund 1 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg (21-09-2025)DVfL Wolfsburg 3 - 3 1. FC Köln (13-09-2025)DVfL Wolfsburg 1 - 1 FSV Mainz 05 (31-08-2025)
9 VfB Stuttgart 4 6 5 5 0 WVfB Stuttgart 2 - 0 FC St. Pauli (19-09-2025)LSC Freiburg 3 - 1 VfB Stuttgart (13-09-2025)WVfB Stuttgart 1 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach (30-08-2025)LUnion Berlin 2 - 1 VfB Stuttgart (23-08-2025)
10 1899 Hoffenheim 4 6 8 10 -2 L1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 4 Bayern München (20-09-2025)WUnion Berlin 2 - 4 1899 Hoffenheim (13-09-2025)L1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 3 Eintracht Frankfurt (30-08-2025)WBayer Leverkusen 1 - 2 1899 Hoffenheim (23-08-2025)
11 Union Berlin 4 6 8 11 -3 WEintracht Frankfurt 3 - 4 Union Berlin (21-09-2025)LUnion Berlin 2 - 4 1899 Hoffenheim (13-09-2025)LBorussia Dortmund 3 - 0 Union Berlin (31-08-2025)WUnion Berlin 2 - 1 VfB Stuttgart (23-08-2025)
12 Bayer Leverkusen 4 5 8 7 +1 DBayer Leverkusen 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach (21-09-2025)WBayer Leverkusen 3 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt (12-09-2025)DWerder Bremen 3 - 3 Bayer Leverkusen (30-08-2025)LBayer Leverkusen 1 - 2 1899 Hoffenheim (23-08-2025)
13 FSV Mainz 05 4 4 5 4 +1 WFC Augsburg 1 - 4 FSV Mainz 05 (20-09-2025)LFSV Mainz 05 0 - 1 RB Leipzig (13-09-2025)DVfL Wolfsburg 1 - 1 FSV Mainz 05 (31-08-2025)LFSV Mainz 05 0 - 1 1. FC Köln (24-08-2025)
14 SC Paderborn 07 2 4 2 1 +1 WSC Paderborn 07 2 - 1 (AET) VfL Wolfsburg (25-05-2026)DVfL Wolfsburg 0 - 0 SC Paderborn 07 (21-05-2026)
15 Werder Bremen 4 4 8 10 -2 LWerder Bremen 0 - 3 SC Freiburg (20-09-2025)WBorussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 4 Werder Bremen (14-09-2025)DWerder Bremen 3 - 3 Bayer Leverkusen (30-08-2025)LEintracht Frankfurt 4 - 1 Werder Bremen (23-08-2025)
16 Hamburger SV 4 4 2 8 -6 WHamburger SV 2 - 1 1. FC Heidenheim (20-09-2025)LBayern München 5 - 0 Hamburger SV (13-09-2025)LHamburger SV 0 - 2 FC St. Pauli (29-08-2025)DBorussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 0 Hamburger SV (24-08-2025)
17 FC Augsburg 4 3 7 10 -3 LFC Augsburg 1 - 4 FSV Mainz 05 (20-09-2025)LFC St. Pauli 2 - 1 FC Augsburg (14-09-2025)LFC Augsburg 2 - 3 Bayern München (30-08-2025)WSC Freiburg 1 - 3 FC Augsburg (23-08-2025)
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 2 1 6 -5 DBayer Leverkusen 1 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach (21-09-2025)LBorussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 4 Werder Bremen (14-09-2025)LVfB Stuttgart 1 - 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach (30-08-2025)DBorussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 0 Hamburger SV (24-08-2025)
19 1. FC Heidenheim 4 0 2 9 -7 LHamburger SV 2 - 1 1. FC Heidenheim (20-09-2025)L1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund (13-09-2025)LRB Leipzig 2 - 0 1. FC Heidenheim (30-08-2025)L1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 3 VfL Wolfsburg (23-08-2025)

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