Bundesliga Regular Season - 16
FC St. Pauli 1 - 1 FT RB Leipzig
Match Statistics
Possession
Shots
Shots on Target
Expected Goals (xG)
Passes
Pass Accuracy
Corners
Fouls
Yellow Cards
Red Cards
Match Events
HT
C. Baumgartner 49'
↓ Romulo Cardoso ↑C. Harder 64'
Y. Diomande 66'
67' ↓ R. Jones ↑M. Kaars
76' ↓ D. Sinani ↑M. Pereira Lage
76' ↓ J. Sands ↑J. Irvine
76' ↓ J. Fujita ↑M. Rasmussen
↓ A. Nusa ↑T. Gomis 85'
↓ C. Baumgartner ↑E. Banzuzi 85'
88' ↓ M. Saliakas ↑A. Ceesay
90'+3 M. Kaars
↓ Y. Diomande ↑B. Henrichs 90'+4
FT
Player Cards
Season performance ratings for players in this match
FC St. Pauli
Goalkeepers
Nikola Vasilj 
PROVOCATEUR
1
fouls won
1
fouls won
1
Duels Won
0
pens won
Defenders
Tomoya Ando 
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
93
total mins
Started
entry
Hauke Wahl 
WALL
0
dribbled past
0
dribbled past
3
tackles
86%
duel win %
Karol Mets 
ENFORCER
5
tackles
5
tackles
9
Duels Won
82%
win %
Midfielders
Manolis Saliakas
👻 Invisible Nothing to note
James Sands
PROVOCATEUR
2
fouls won
2
fouls won
5
Duels Won
0
pens won
Eric Smith 
SWEEPER
3
cleanups
3
cleanups
3
interceptions
0
blocks
Arkadiusz Pyrka
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
93
total mins
Started
entry
Forwards
Danel Sinani 
MAGNET
48
activity
48
activity
42
passes
6
duels
Joel Chima Fujita
LATE SHIFT
14
late mins
14
late mins
77
total mins
76
entry
Ricky-Jade Jones
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
67
total mins
67
entry
BENCH
Ben Voll 
SPECTATOR
0
saves
0
saves
0
conceded
0
minutes
Jannik Thomas Robatsch
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
0
total mins
Started
entry
Lars Ritzka
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
0
total mins
Started
entry
Louis Oppie
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
0
total mins
Started
entry
Mathias Rasmussen
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
16
total mins
Started
entry
Jackson Irvine
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
16
total mins
Started
entry
Mathias Pereira Lage
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
17
total mins
Started
entry
Martijn Kaars 
CLUTCH HERO
0
goal time
0
goal time
0
impact
7.5
rating
Abdoulie Ceesay
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
6
total mins
Started
entry
RB Leipzig
Goalkeepers
Péter Gulácsi
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
93
total mins
Started
entry
Defenders
Ridle Baku
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
93
total mins
Started
entry
Willi Orbán
WALL
0
dribbled past
0
dribbled past
2
tackles
89%
duel win %
El Chadaille Bitshiabu
MAGNET
106
activity
106
activity
101
passes
5
duels
David Raum 
FRIENDLY FIRE
0
mistake
0
mistake
2
fouls
5.3
rating
Midfielders
Xaver Schlager
PROVOCATEUR
2
fouls won
2
fouls won
2
Duels Won
0
pens won
Nicolas Seiwald
SWEEPER
3
cleanups
3
cleanups
3
interceptions
0
blocks
Christoph Baumgartner
LATE SHIFT
5
late mins
5
late mins
85
total mins
85
entry
Forwards
Yan Diomande 
SNIPER
100%
conversion
100%
conversion
1
goals
1
shots
Rômulo
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
64
total mins
64
entry
Antonio Nusa
LATE SHIFT
5
late mins
5
late mins
85
total mins
85
entry
BENCH
Maarten Vandevoordt
SPECTATOR
0
saves
0
saves
0
conceded
0
minutes
Lukas Klostermann
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
0
total mins
Started
entry
Benjamin Henrichs
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
0
total mins
Started
entry
Kosta Nedeljković
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
0
total mins
Started
entry
Max Finkgräfe
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
0
total mins
Started
entry
Ezechiel Banzuzi
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
8
total mins
Started
entry
Andrija Maksimović
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
0
total mins
Started
entry
Conrad Harder
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
29
total mins
Started
entry
Tidiam Gomis
LATE SHIFT
15
late mins
15
late mins
8
total mins
Started
entry
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2025 | RB Leipzig | 2 - 0 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | Red Bull Arena |
| 29/10/2024 | RB Leipzig | 4 - 2 | FC St. Pauli | DFB Pokal | Red Bull Arena |
| 22/09/2024 | FC St. Pauli | 0 - 0 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 12/02/2016 | FC St. Pauli | 1 - 0 | RB Leipzig | 2. Bundesliga | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 23/08/2015 | RB Leipzig | 0 - 1 | FC St. Pauli | 2. Bundesliga | Red Bull Arena |
| 03/05/2015 | FC St. Pauli | 1 - 0 | RB Leipzig | 2. Bundesliga | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 23/11/2014 | RB Leipzig | 4 - 1 | FC St. Pauli | 2. Bundesliga | Red Bull Arena |
09/02/2025
29/10/2024
22/09/2024
12/02/2016
23/08/2015
03/05/2015
23/11/2014
FC St. Pauli Win
RB Leipzig Win
Draw
League Standings
P: 16 GD: +51
P: 16 GD: +14
P: 15 GD: +11
P: 16 GD: +10
P: 16 GD: +6
P: 15 GD: +9
P: 16 GD: 0
P: 16 GD: 0
P: 16 GD: -3
P: 16 GD: -2
P: 16 GD: -2
P: 15 GD: -10
P: 16 GD: -10
P: 16 GD: -12
P: 16 GD: -15
P: 15 GD: -13
P: 16 GD: -21
League Standings
P: 20 GD: +56
P: 19 GD: +21
P: 20 GD: +20
P: 20 GD: +10
P: 20 GD: +11
P: 19 GD: +12
P: 20 GD: -1
P: 20 GD: -5
P: 20 GD: -8
P: 20 GD: -3
P: 20 GD: -13
P: 20 GD: -9
P: 19 GD: -10
P: 20 GD: -14
P: 20 GD: -16
P: 20 GD: -10
P: 20 GD: -16
AI-powered match analysis and previews to help you decide which games are worth watching
Late Kaars Penalty Punishes Wasteful Leipzig
Worth Watching Futmetrix Score: 55/100. A relegation-threatened side defying the odds against title contenders creates the ultimate late-season drama.
The Tactical Stalemate
The Millerntor-Stadion atmosphere provided a wall of sound as FC St. Pauli looked to bridge the gap against their high-flying visitors. RB Leipzig controlled possession with 54%, looking to impose their technical superiority from the outset. However, the Intensity from the home side was palpable, forcing the visitors into uncomfortable wide areas and disrupting their usual rhythm. Despite the massive gulf in the league table, the Balance of the match remained surprisingly even throughout the first hour, as the hosts limited Leipzig to speculative shots from distance. The defensive discipline shown by St. Pauli was a testament to their survival instincts, frustrating a Leipzig side that arrived in Hamburg expecting to dominate. With five vital saves recorded by the home goalkeeper, the narrative of a gritty underdog performance began to take shape against a backdrop of mounting tension.
Diomande Breaks the Deadlock
The match tilted on its axis in the 66th minute when the deadlock was finally shattered. Yan Diomande, who had been a constant threat with four key passes, found the clinical touch that RB Leipzig desperately needed. His strike silenced the home crowd and seemed to confirm the superiority of the third-placed visitors. Diomande's performance, earning a match-high rating of 8.0, showcased why he is such a vital asset in their quest for silverware this season. Following the goal, the Stakes shifted dramatically as St. Pauli were forced to abandon their defensive shell. The introduction of Martijn Kaars in the 67th minute was the tactical gamble that would eventually redefine the outcome. Leipzig looked to have secured the points, but their failure to convert more of their 12 total shots left the door ajar.
Kaars' Cold-Blooded Finish
As the clock ticked deep into stoppage time, the drama reached its peak. A late foul in the area handed FC St. Pauli a lifeline from the penalty spot. Martijn Kaars stepped up under immense pressure, converting the 90th-minute penalty to ignite scenes of jubilation across the stadium. This Upset of expectations left the title-chasers reeling, as two points slipped through their fingers in the final moments. For the hosts, this was a hard-earned reward for a performance where they actually outperformed Leipzig on expected goals, recording a 1.45 xG compared to the visitors' 1.09. The draw keeps St. Pauli's hopes of avoiding the drop alive, while for RB Leipzig, it represents a significant blow to their momentum in the title race. In a league where every point is a battle, this last-gasp equalizer served as a stark reminder of the Bundesliga's unpredictability.
Key Questions
Did FC St. Pauli deserve the late equalizer?
Yes. Despite having less possession, St. Pauli produced a higher xG (1.45) than Leipzig (1.09), showing they were more efficient with the limited chances they created.
How did substitute Yan Diomande change the game?
Diomande actually started the match, dominating the creative phase with four key passes before scoring the opener, momentarily giving Leipzig the edge they needed.
How is the Futmetrix Score calculated?
The Futmetrix Score (0-100) combines multiple factors: match intensity, competitive balance, stakes importance, and entertainment value to help you decide if this match is worth watching.
Class Warfare on the Elbe: Leipzig Tests St. Pauli's Survival Instinct
Worth Watching Futmetrix Score: 69/100. A six-pointer for Leipzig, a final reckoning for St. Pauli—the Stakes could hardly be higher, even if the form book reads like a coronation.
The Setup
RB Leipzig arrive in Hamburg as fourth-place contenders with 29 points, desperate to keep the title race within sight. Nine wins from 15 matches demonstrate quality, yet recent Form (LLWDW) reveals cracks. FC St. Pauli are fighting for their Bundesliga lives: 12 points, 16th place, and a grim three wins from 15 outings. The Balance is grotesquely skewed—Leipzig dominate the metrics, but Millerntor-Stadion plays by different rules.
The Tactical Battle
St. Pauli's sole currency is intensity and home advantage. Leipzig will seek to dictate possession and impose early pressure. Whoever wins the midfield chess match—whether St. Pauli's high-octane pressing or Leipzig's patient build-up—determines the script. The Stars favour the visitors, but atmospherics favour the home side.
Our Prediction
Leipzig win 2-1. The visitors dominate possession and territory, yet St. Pauli refuse to be erased—they snatch a counter-attacking goal that promises more than it delivers. Leipzig's efficiency prevails, but it's far from the rout the odds suggest.
Key Questions
Should I watch this match?
Absolutely. Millerntor atmosphere plus relegation stakes equals raw tension. Leipzig's class meets St. Pauli's desperation.
What's the predicted outcome?
Leipzig 2-1 St. Pauli. Visitors control the game, hosts grab one on the break. Convincing for Leipzig's quality, not their dominance.
Where are both teams in the league table?
Leipzig 4th with 29 points, St. Pauli 16th with 12 points. A gulf separates them after 15 matches.
What is St. Pauli's current form?
Dire: WDLLL (one win, one draw, three defeats). Only 13 goals in 15 matches. Defence in freefall (26 conceded).
Who is expected to win?
RB Leipzig at 49% win probability. St. Pauli hold just 25%, yet home advantage counts heavily in a survival fight.
How is the Futmetrix Score calculated?
The Futmetrix Score (0-100) combines multiple factors: match intensity, competitive balance, stakes importance, and entertainment value to help you decide if this match is worth watching.