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Futmetrix Verdict
52
FT
Thu, Oct 22
Bournemouth
3-0
AC Milan
⚡ Intensity
75
⚖️ Balance
20
🏆 Stakes
3
🎲 Upset
0
Two penalties, one red card, total control
Futmetrix Verdict
26
FT
Thu, Oct 22
Sturm Graz
1-0
Marseille
⚡ Intensity
22
⚖️ Balance
31
🏆 Stakes
11
🎲 Upset
60
Diakité struck; Marseille never answered
Match Statistics
Possession
Shots
Shots on Target
Expected Goals (xG)
Passes
Pass Accuracy
Corners
Fouls
Yellow Cards
Red Cards
Match Events
30' Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira (Álvaro Montoro)
Jovane Cabral 36'
45' ↓ Edenilson ↑Danilo
45' ↓ Lucas Monzon ↑Gabriel Justino
HT
52' Álvaro Montoro (Vitinho)
↓ Jovane Cabral ↑José Enamorado 59'
↓ Filip Krovinović ↑Martin Braithwaite 66'
73' ↓ Júnior Santos ↑Marçal
Erick Noriega 78'
↓ Cristian Pavón ↑Tetê 78'
↓ Erick Noriega ↑Matheus Nascimento 78'
79' Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira (Álvaro Montoro)
79' ↓ Álvaro Montoro ↑Allan
86' ↓ Arthur Cabral ↑Tiquinho Soares
Gustavo Martins (Tetê) 88'
Carlos Vinícius 90'+3
Matheus Nascimento 90'+7
FT
Player Cards
Our take on every player in this match
Botafogo
Goalkeepers
Gabriel Batista 
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Defenders
Vitinho 
WALL
0
Dribbled Past
0
Dribbled Past
5
Tackles
69%
Duel Win %
Arthur Chaves
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Lucas Monzon
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
45
Entry
Alex Telles 
STORMTROOPER
1
Shots
1
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Midfielders
Huguinho 
PROVOCATEUR
3
Fouls Won
3
Fouls Won
7
Duels Won
0
Pens Won
Danilo 
CLOSER
1
Late Goals
1
Late Goals
0
Late Assists
75
Minute
Júnior Santos
STORMTROOPER
2
Shots
2
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Edenílson
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
45
Entry
Álvaro Montoro 
SNIPER
50%
Conversion
50%
Conversion
1
Goals
2
Shots
Forwards
Arthur Cabral 
NPC
86
Minutes
86
Minutes
11%
Pass Acc
6.3
Rating
BENCH
Warleson 
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Paulo Victor
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Marçal
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
17
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Kadu Santos
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
G. Justino
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Allan
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
11
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Domingos Andrade
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Kauan Toledo
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Tiquinho Soares
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
4
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Danilo
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
45
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Lucas Villalba
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Lucas Emanuel
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Gremio
Goalkeepers
Weverton
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Defenders
Diego Caito 
ARCHITECT
2
Key Passes
2
Key Passes
0
Assists
64%
Pass Acc
Gustavo Martins 
CLUTCH HERO
88
Goal Time
88
Goal Time
Goal
Impact
7.6
Rating
Wallace 
MAGNET
93
Activity
93
Activity
81
Passes
12
Duels
Caio
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Midfielders
Erick Noriega 
SWEEPER
3
Cleanups
3
Cleanups
1
Interceptions
2
Blocks
Mathías Villasanti
MAGNET
93
Activity
93
Activity
83
Passes
10
Duels
Cristian Pavón
ARCHITECT
5
Key Passes
5
Key Passes
0
Assists
48%
Pass Acc
Filip Krovinović
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
66
Total Mins
66
Entry
Jovane Cabral 
FINISHER
1
Goals
1
Goals
3
Shots
7.7
Rating
Forwards
Carlos Vinícius
STORMTROOPER
3
Shots
3
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
BENCH
Gabriel Grando
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
G. Menegon
👻 Invisible Nothing to note
Marcos Rocha
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
João Pedro
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Walter Kannemann
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Wagner Leonardo
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Juan Nardoni
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Danilo Barbosa
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Martin Braithwaite
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
24
Total Mins
Started
Entry
José Enamorado
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
31
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Tetê 
PROVIDER
1
Assists
1
Assists
1
Key Passes
7.0
Rating
Matheus Nascimento
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
12
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Head to Head
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | Gremio | 5 - 3 | Botafogo | Serie A | Arena do Grêmio |
| 11/22/2025 | Botafogo | 3 - 2 | Gremio | Serie A | Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos |
| 09/24/2025 | Gremio | 1 - 1 | Botafogo | Serie A | Arena do Grêmio |
| 09/29/2024 | Botafogo | 0 - 0 | Gremio | Serie A | Arena BRB Mané Garrincha |
| 06/16/2024 | Gremio | 1 - 2 | Botafogo | Serie A | Estádio Kleber José de Andrade |
| 11/09/2023 | Botafogo | 3 - 4 | Gremio | Serie A | Estádio São Januário |
| 07/09/2023 | Gremio | 0 - 2 | Botafogo | Serie A | Arena do Grêmio |
| 02/08/2021 | Botafogo | 2 - 5 | Gremio | Serie A | Estádio Nilton Santos |
| 10/14/2020 | Gremio | 3 - 1 | Botafogo | Serie A | Arena do Grêmio |
| 10/27/2019 | Gremio | 3 - 0 | Botafogo | Serie A | Arena do Grêmio |
Botafogo Win
Gremio Win
Draw
League Standings
P: 21 GD: +22
P: 20 GD: +19
P: 21 GD: +9
P: 21 GD: +5
P: 21 GD: +4
P: 20 GD: +6
P: 20 GD: +2
P: 21 GD: +2
P: 20 GD: 0
P: 20 GD: -2
P: 20 GD: -4
P: 20 GD: +2
P: 21 GD: -9
P: 20 GD: -4
P: 20 GD: -4
P: 21 GD: -4
P: 20 GD: -4
P: 20 GD: -8
P: 21 GD: -10
League Standings
P: 31 GD: +32
P: 30 GD: +33
P: 31 GD: +12
P: 30 GD: +11
P: 31 GD: +7
P: 30 GD: +8
P: 30 GD: +2
P: 31 GD: +1
P: 30 GD: +1
P: 30 GD: +3
P: 31 GD: -4
P: 31 GD: -11
P: 30 GD: -11
P: 31 GD: -8
P: 30 GD: -7
P: 30 GD: -7
P: 31 GD: -7
P: 30 GD: -8
P: 30 GD: -15
Match previews and recaps to help you decide which games are worth watching
Botafogo
Gremio
Botafogo
Gremio
Win Probability
Futmetrix AI estimate
Ruthless Efficiency Stuns the Nilton Santos
Average Entertainment Futmetrix Score: 51/100. A masterclass in counter-attacking football saw the hosts defy massive possession deficits to edge a breathless five-goal encounter.
The Opening Gambit
The tactical picture painted itself immediately at the Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos. Gremio arrived with a clear mandate to control the tempo, dominating possession with a staggering 64% of the ball. They pinged passes comfortably in the middle third, stringing together over 600 total passes at an impressive 88% completion rate. Franco Cristaldo looked to orchestrate the visitors' attacks, but the Intensity of the home defensive structure kept them firmly at arm's length. Botafogo were entirely comfortable operating without the ball, setting up a resilient mid-block and waiting to trigger their traps. The visitors had the lion's share of territory, yet their 13 total shots largely came from unthreatening areas, barely troubling the goalkeeper in the opening exchanges.
The Clinical Pivot
The true turning point was a ruthless lesson in brutal offensive efficiency. The Balance of play heavily favored the visitors in terms of raw territory, but the home side possessed a venomous sting in transition. Generating a minuscule 0.89 expected goals across the entire 90 minutes, the hosts somehow transformed half-chances into gold. Luiz Henrique and the forward line were utterly lethal whenever they broke forward. They registered seven shots on target from just 10 total attempts, cutting through the high defensive line with laser precision. Every time the visitors lost possession, the counter-attack was immediate and devastating. The tactical gamble of absorbing pressure paid off perfectly, turning defensive clearances into immediate offensive transitions.
A Dramatic Conclusion
The closing stages transformed into a chaotic shootout. The visitors kept pushing, managing to scramble two goals from their own meager 0.57 xG tally, but their defensive frailties in transition proved insurmountable. With the Stakes deeply intertwined with the Copa Sudamericana race, the home side defended their narrow lead with fierce desperation, racking up 38 crucial clearances. The home fans roared as every successful aerial duel felt like a vital step toward victory. The final whistle delivered a massive blow to the visitors, who remain perilously stuck in a fierce relegation battle. While the Upset Factor remained low given the league standings, the sheer statistical anomaly of witnessing a five-goal thriller born from just 1.46 combined expected goals will define this classic encounter.
Key Questions
What caused the 5-goal thriller?
Incredible finishing efficiency. Both teams drastically overperformed their very low expected goals (0.89 vs 0.57), converting half-chances into a 3-2 spectacle despite heavy away possession.
What is the Futmetrix Score?
The Futmetrix Score is our 0-100 verdict on how entertaining a match is. We look at intensity, balance, stakes, and star quality to tell you if it's worth your time.
A historic rivalry stripped of title glamour
Average Entertainment Futmetrix Score: 47/100. The fierce history between these sides cannot mask the reality of a disjointed mid-table scrap where survival instincts outweigh attacking ambition.
The Setup
Down at the Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, this classic fixture arrives with a sobering Stakes rating. Botafogo sit 10th, drifting aimlessly in mid-table, while Gremio languish dangerously in 16th, locked in a tense relegation battle. The visitors' patchy Form highlights defensive frailties that their hosts will aim to exploit. Despite the low Balance on paper, derby days have a habit of dragging favorites down to earth.
Key Battle
Arthur Cabral brings his scoring boots against a vulnerable away defense. He will be looking to outshine Gremio's creative spark, Cristian Pavón, who has supplied three assists in his last two outings. This individual Stars quality could be the sole bright spark in an otherwise grinding, physical affair.
Our Prediction
We expect a scrappy 1-1 draw. Botafogo might dictate possession, but Gremio's sheer desperation to pull away from the drop zone will fuel a stubborn rear-guard action, resulting in a frustrating night for the home crowd.