Match previews and recaps to help you decide which games are worth watching

Futmetrix Verdict
69
FT
Sat, Sep 12
Aston Villa
1-2
Nottingham Forest
⚡ Intensity 73
⚖️ Balance 56
🏆 Stakes 6
🎲 Upset 30
Super subs define relegation six-pointer.

Win Probability

  • Aston Villa 42%
  • Draw 28%
  • Nottingham Forest 30%

Futmetrix AI estimate

Forest Firepower Overwhelms Villa in Late Drama

Worth Watching Futmetrix Score: 69/100. Substitute Igor Jesus delivered an 88th-minute gut punch to settle a vital early-season basement battle at Villa Park.

The Siege at Villa Park

Early on, Aston Villa edged possession, but the visitors turned Villa Park into an absolute shooting gallery. Despite controlling the ball 53% of the time, the hosts found themselves under constant bombardment in this crucial relegation six-pointer. Nottingham Forest bypassed the midfield with ease, unleashing a staggering 22 shots compared to Villa's meager seven. The Intensity was evident in every rapid transition, stretching the home defense to its breaking point. Both goalkeepers were forced into immediate heroics, combining for ten crucial saves across the afternoon to keep the Upset Factor brewing in the West Midlands. The high-volume attacking siege from the away side set a punishing tempo that dictated the opening forty-five minutes of play.

Subplots and Breakthroughs

Liam Delap broke the deadlock just after the restart, firing home in the 46th minute after a sharp sequence involving Murillo Santiago. Recognizing the shifting Balance on the pitch, the hosts made a critical tactical adjustment by throwing on Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha at halftime. That gamble paid immediate dividends. Linking up brilliantly with captain John McGinn, the Brazilian forward smashed home a 74th-minute equalizer that sent the home supporters into absolute delirium. It seemed the hosts had miraculously clawed their way out of the abyss, showcasing serious grit in a match defined by increasingly high Stakes. The momentum swung wildly as both sides chased the crucial next goal, turning the middle phase of the match into a chaotic end-to-end spectacle.

The Ultimate Impact

Just as the narrative pointed toward a gritty, hard-fought draw, Forest's own bench swung the tie definitively. Entering the fray in the 75th minute, substitute Igor Jesus only needed thirteen minutes to cement his hero status. An 88th-minute intervention, expertly crafted by the vision of Morgan Gibbs-White, snatched the victory away from the exhausted Midlanders. The late winner sees Forest leap upward, leaving their opponents stranded in 19th place without a win in three games. This result highlights a worrying defensive fragility for the hosts, while the visitors celebrate a massive early-season scalp that could redefine their campaign trajectory. Breaking the late deadlock was a testament to Forest's relentless shot volume and refusal to settle for a single point.

Key Questions

How dramatic was the late winner by Alysson Edward?

Alysson Edward scored a dramatic 74th-minute equalizer, but it was Igor Jesus who ultimately netted the 88th-minute winner to seal Nottingham Forest's 2-1 away victory.

How did substitute Alysson Edward change the game?

Coming on at halftime, Alysson Edward provided an immediate attacking spark, aggressively pressing the backline and scoring the crucial equalizer for his struggling side.

What is the Futmetrix Score?

The Futmetrix Score is our 0-100 verdict on how entertaining a match is. We look at intensity, balance, stakes, and star quality to tell you if it's worth your time.

Match Statistics

Possession
53%
47%
Aston Villa 53%
Nottingham Forest 47%
Shots
7
22
Aston Villa 7
Nottingham Forest 22
Shots on Target
5
7
Aston Villa 5
Nottingham Forest 7
Expected Goals (xG)
0.86
1.92
Aston Villa 0.86
Nottingham Forest 1.92
Passes
412
360
Aston Villa 412
Nottingham Forest 360
Corners
6
1
Aston Villa 6
Nottingham Forest 1
Fouls
11
16
Aston Villa 11
Nottingham Forest 16
Yellow Cards
2
5
Aston Villa 2
Nottingham Forest 5
Red Cards
0
0
Aston Villa 0
Nottingham Forest 0

Match Events

25' 🔄 ↓ Pau Torres ↑Tyrone Mings
Dan Ndoye 🟨 43'
45' 🟨 Nicolas Jackson
45' 🔄 ↓ Nicolas Jackson ↑Tammy Abraham
45' 🔄 ↓ George Hemmings ↑ Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
Murillo Santiago 🟨 45'+3
HT
Liam Delap (Murillo Santiago) ⚽ 46'
Xaver Schlager 🟨 56'
63' 🔄 ↓ Ross Barkley ↑Johan Manzambi
63' 🔄 ↓ Emiliano Buendía ↑Ibrahim Mbaye
74' ⚽ Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha (John McGinn)
Liam Delap 🟨 75'
↓ Dan Ndoye ↑Igor Jesus 🔄 75'
James Mcatee 🟨 80'
↓ James Mcatee ↑Ibrahim Sangaré 🔄 82'
Igor Jesus (Morgan Gibbs-White) ⚽ 88'
↓ Liam Delap ↑Chris Wood 🔄 90'+1
90'+5 🟨 Tyrone Mings
FT

Player Cards

Our take on every player in this match

Aston Villa

Goalkeepers
Zion Suzuki
OCTOPUS
OCTOPUS
5
Saves
5
Saves
0
Conceded
100%
Save %
Defenders
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
WALL
WALL
0
Dribbled Past
0
Dribbled Past
5
Tackles
78%
Duel Win %
Victor Lindelöf
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
1
Shots
1
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Pau Torres
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
25
Total Mins
25
Entry
Ian Maatsen
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
2
Shots
2
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Midfielders
Boubacar Kamara
PROVOCATEUR
PROVOCATEUR
3
Fouls Won
3
Fouls Won
7
Duels Won
0
Pens Won
Ross Barkley
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
63
Total Mins
63
Entry
John McGinn
PROVOCATEUR
PROVOCATEUR
5
Fouls Won
5
Fouls Won
6
Duels Won
0
Pens Won
Emiliano Buendía
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
63
Total Mins
63
Entry
George Hemmings
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
46
Total Mins
45
Entry
Forwards
Nicolas Jackson
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
46
Total Mins
45
Entry
BENCH
Marco Bizot
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Matteo Ruggeri
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Tyrone Mings
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
1
Shots
1
Shots
0
Goals
0
On Target
Johan Manzambi
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
27
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Lamare Bogarde
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Ibrahim Mbaye
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
27
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Tammy Abraham
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
44
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Alejandro Garnacho
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Alysson
SNIPER
SNIPER
100%
Conversion
100%
Conversion
1
Goals
1
Shots

Nottingham Forest

Goalkeepers
Matz Sels
OCTOPUS
OCTOPUS
5
Saves
5
Saves
0
Conceded
100%
Save %
Defenders
Ola Aina
WALL
WALL
0
Dribbled Past
0
Dribbled Past
3
Tackles
71%
Duel Win %
Ousmane Diomande
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
1
Shots
1
Shots
0
Goals
0
On Target
Murillo
PROVIDER
PROVIDER
1
Assists
1
Assists
1
Key Passes
6.9
Rating
Midfielders
Daniel Muñoz
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
4
Key Passes
4
Key Passes
0
Assists
34%
Pass Acc
Xaver Schlager
ENFORCER
ENFORCER
6
Tackles
6
Tackles
8
Duels Won
80%
Win %
James McAtee
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
2
Shots
2
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Neco Williams
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
2
Shots
2
Shots
0
Goals
0
On Target
Dan Ndoye
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
5
Shots
5
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Morgan Gibbs-White
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
7
Key Passes
7
Key Passes
1
Assists
32%
Pass Acc
Forwards
Liam Delap
FINISHER
FINISHER
1
Goals
1
Goals
6
Shots
7.7
Rating
BENCH
John Victor Furtado
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Luca Netz
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Ibrahim Sangaré
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
8
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Nicolás Domínguez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Ryan Yates
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Chris Wood
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Arnaud Kalimuendo
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Callum Hudson-Odoi
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Igor Jesus
CLUTCH HERO
CLUTCH HERO
88
Goal Time
88
Goal Time
Goal
Impact
7.8
Rating

Head to Head

Date Home Score Away Competition Venue
05/07/2026 Aston Villa 4 - 0 Nottingham Forest UEFA Europa League Villa Park
04/30/2026 Nottingham Forest 1 - 0 Aston Villa UEFA Europa League City Ground
04/12/2026 Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Aston Villa Premier League City Ground
01/03/2026 Aston Villa 3 - 1 Nottingham Forest Premier League Villa Park
04/05/2025 Aston Villa 2 - 1 Nottingham Forest Premier League Villa Park
12/14/2024 Nottingham Forest 2 - 1 Aston Villa Premier League The City Ground
02/24/2024 Aston Villa 4 - 2 Nottingham Forest Premier League Villa Park
11/05/2023 Nottingham Forest 2 - 0 Aston Villa Premier League The City Ground
04/08/2023 Aston Villa 2 - 0 Nottingham Forest Premier League Villa Park
10/10/2022 Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Aston Villa Premier League The City Ground
05/07/2026
UEFA Europa League Villa Park
04/30/2026
UEFA Europa League City Ground
04/12/2026
Premier League City Ground
01/03/2026
Premier League Villa Park
04/05/2025
Premier League Villa Park
12/14/2024
Premier League The City Ground
02/24/2024
Premier League Villa Park
11/05/2023
Premier League The City Ground
04/08/2023
Premier League Villa Park
10/10/2022
Premier League The City Ground
Aston Villa Win
Nottingham Forest Win
Draw

League Standings

Pos Team P Pts GF GA GD Form
1 Arsenal 4 12 8 1 +7 WSunderland 0 - 2 Arsenal (12-09-2026)WArsenal 2 - 1 Chelsea (06-09-2026)WAston Villa 0 - 1 Arsenal (31-08-2026)WArsenal 3 - 0 Coventry (21-08-2026)
2 Manchester City 4 12 8 2 +6 WManchester United 0 - 1 Manchester City (13-09-2026)WManchester City 1 - 0 Coventry (05-09-2026)WCrystal Palace 1 - 4 Manchester City (28-08-2026)WManchester City 2 - 1 Bournemouth (23-08-2026)
3 Leeds 4 8 7 3 +4 WLeeds 4 - 1 Newcastle (14-09-2026)DBrighton 1 - 1 Leeds (05-09-2026)DLeeds 1 - 1 Brentford (30-08-2026)WNottingham Forest 0 - 1 Leeds (22-08-2026)
4 Hull City 4 8 5 2 +3 DChelsea 2 - 2 Hull City (12-09-2026)DHull City 0 - 0 Aston Villa (05-09-2026)WCoventry 0 - 1 Hull City (29-08-2026)WHull City 2 - 0 Manchester United (22-08-2026)
5 Brighton 4 7 13 5 +8 WCoventry 0 - 5 Brighton (13-09-2026)DBrighton 1 - 1 Leeds (05-09-2026)LChelsea 4 - 3 Brighton (30-08-2026)WBrighton 4 - 0 Aston Villa (23-08-2026)
6 Chelsea 4 7 10 9 +1 DChelsea 2 - 2 Hull City (12-09-2026)LArsenal 2 - 1 Chelsea (06-09-2026)WChelsea 4 - 3 Brighton (30-08-2026)WFulham 2 - 3 Chelsea (24-08-2026)
7 Brentford 4 6 7 4 +3 DBournemouth 2 - 2 Brentford (12-09-2026)DBrentford 1 - 1 Sunderland (05-09-2026)DLeeds 1 - 1 Brentford (30-08-2026)WBrentford 3 - 0 Tottenham (22-08-2026)
8 Liverpool 4 6 6 4 +2 DLiverpool 0 - 0 Fulham (12-09-2026)WIpswich 0 - 2 Liverpool (04-09-2026)DLiverpool 2 - 2 Nottingham Forest (29-08-2026)DNewcastle 2 - 2 Liverpool (23-08-2026)
9 Everton 4 6 5 3 +2 DTottenham 0 - 0 Everton (12-09-2026)DEverton 2 - 2 Manchester United (06-09-2026)DBournemouth 1 - 1 Everton (29-08-2026)WEverton 2 - 0 Crystal Palace (22-08-2026)
10 Ipswich 4 6 7 10 -3 WCrystal Palace 2 - 3 Ipswich (12-09-2026)LIpswich 0 - 2 Liverpool (04-09-2026)LManchester United 5 - 2 Ipswich (30-08-2026)WIpswich 2 - 1 Sunderland (22-08-2026)
11 Nottingham Forest 4 5 4 4 0 WAston Villa 1 - 2 Nottingham Forest (12-09-2026)DNottingham Forest 0 - 0 Tottenham (05-09-2026)DLiverpool 2 - 2 Nottingham Forest (29-08-2026)LNottingham Forest 0 - 1 Leeds (22-08-2026)
12 Newcastle 4 5 7 8 -1 LLeeds 4 - 1 Newcastle (14-09-2026)DNewcastle 2 - 2 Bournemouth (05-09-2026)WTottenham 0 - 2 Newcastle (29-08-2026)DNewcastle 2 - 2 Liverpool (23-08-2026)
13 Manchester United 4 4 7 7 0 LManchester United 0 - 1 Manchester City (13-09-2026)DEverton 2 - 2 Manchester United (06-09-2026)WManchester United 5 - 2 Ipswich (30-08-2026)LHull City 2 - 0 Manchester United (22-08-2026)
14 Sunderland 4 4 3 5 -2 LSunderland 0 - 2 Arsenal (12-09-2026)DBrentford 1 - 1 Sunderland (05-09-2026)WSunderland 1 - 0 Fulham (30-08-2026)LIpswich 2 - 1 Sunderland (22-08-2026)
15 Bournemouth 4 3 6 7 -1 DBournemouth 2 - 2 Brentford (12-09-2026)DNewcastle 2 - 2 Bournemouth (05-09-2026)DBournemouth 1 - 1 Everton (29-08-2026)LManchester City 2 - 1 Bournemouth (23-08-2026)
16 Crystal Palace 4 3 6 11 -5 LCrystal Palace 2 - 3 Ipswich (12-09-2026)WFulham 2 - 3 Crystal Palace (05-09-2026)LCrystal Palace 1 - 4 Manchester City (28-08-2026)LEverton 2 - 0 Crystal Palace (22-08-2026)
17 Tottenham 4 2 0 5 -5 DTottenham 0 - 0 Everton (12-09-2026)DNottingham Forest 0 - 0 Tottenham (05-09-2026)LTottenham 0 - 2 Newcastle (29-08-2026)LBrentford 3 - 0 Tottenham (22-08-2026)
18 Fulham 4 1 4 7 -3 DLiverpool 0 - 0 Fulham (12-09-2026)LFulham 2 - 3 Crystal Palace (05-09-2026)LSunderland 1 - 0 Fulham (30-08-2026)LFulham 2 - 3 Chelsea (24-08-2026)
19 Aston Villa 4 1 1 7 -6 LAston Villa 1 - 2 Nottingham Forest (12-09-2026)DHull City 0 - 0 Aston Villa (05-09-2026)LAston Villa 0 - 1 Arsenal (31-08-2026)LBrighton 4 - 0 Aston Villa (23-08-2026)
20 Coventry 4 0 0 10 -10 LCoventry 0 - 5 Brighton (13-09-2026)LManchester City 1 - 0 Coventry (05-09-2026)LCoventry 0 - 1 Hull City (29-08-2026)LArsenal 3 - 0 Coventry (21-08-2026)

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