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Futmetrix Verdict
22
FT
Sat, Oct 31
FC Cincinnati
1-0
Philadelphia Union
⚡ Intensity 19
⚖️ Balance 22
🏆 Stakes 10
🎲 Upset 10
Six minutes ended the corner siege

Win Probability

  • FC Cincinnati 39%
  • Draw 24%
  • Philadelphia Union 37%

Futmetrix AI estimate

A Corner Siege Ends With One Decisive Strike

Skip It Futmetrix Score: 22/100. A substitute's instant finish and a goalkeeper's six saves turned a pressure-heavy night into a crucial three-point swing.

The Opening Act

Philadelphia Union spent long spells making FC Cincinnati defend, and the numbers back that impression: 15 shots, six on target and 12 corners. Yet the visitors left TQL Stadium with nothing. Cincinnati edged possession at 51%, but this was no story of home control; they were pushed into repeated clearances and had to survive the Union's wide delivery. K. Wagner offered the best route forward from the left, supplying four key passes and keeping the pressure alive. The Balance remained delicate: Cincinnati's seven attempts could not match the volume, while the visitors' three big chances kept the home side honest. The early pattern was less a flowing contest than a siege interrupted by counter-moments, with each Union corner asking the same question of the Cincinnati box. The Intensity came from that repetition, not from end-to-end football.

The Pivot

The decisive intervention came from Cincinnati's bench, not from a sustained spell of pressure. Ayoub Jabbari entered in the 64th minute and, six minutes later, converted the one opening that changed the night. His 70th-minute finish was especially valuable because Cincinnati had managed only seven shots and two on target; they did not need a second chance once it went in. Philadelphia responded with the profile of a side still asking questions: 15 attempts, three big chances and 12 corners. But R. Celentano turned that volume into frustration, recording six saves as the Union searched for an equaliser. The Intensity rose around the box, yet the pivot was simple: one fresh attacker finished, while Cincinnati's goalkeeper kept the visitors from undoing it.

The Resolution

That leaves Cincinnati with the night's most important currency: three points earned through a finish and a goalkeeper's resistance. FC Cincinnati beat Philadelphia Union 1-0 at TQL Stadium, despite being outshot more than two to one. Philadelphia's 12 corners and six shots on target make the loss difficult to dismiss as a lack of ambition; their final action, not their approach, failed them. The table context sharpens the result. The clubs were level on 34 points before the match, with Philadelphia sixth and Cincinnati eighth, so this is a meaningful lift for Cincinnati and a missed chance for the Union to move further clear. The Stakes are not a title or relegation narrative; they are the value of every point in a tightly packed regular-season run-in. Cincinnati leave with belief in a substitute who delivered and a keeper who stood firm.

Key Questions

How did substitute R. Celentano change the game?

Celentano was not a substitute; he started and made six saves, keeping Cincinnati in front through Philadelphia's pressure.

What is the Futmetrix Score?

The Futmetrix Score is our 0-100 verdict on how entertaining a match is. We look at intensity, balance, stakes, and star quality to tell you if it's worth your time.

Match Statistics

Possession
51%
49%
FC Cincinnati 51%
Philadelphia Union 49%
Shots
7
15
FC Cincinnati 7
Philadelphia Union 15
Shots on Target
2
6
FC Cincinnati 2
Philadelphia Union 6
Expected Goals (xG)
1.10
1.14
FC Cincinnati 1.10
Philadelphia Union 1.14
Passes
430
399
FC Cincinnati 430
Philadelphia Union 399
Corners
3
12
FC Cincinnati 3
Philadelphia Union 12
Fouls
11
4
FC Cincinnati 11
Philadelphia Union 4
Yellow Cards
0
0
FC Cincinnati 0
Philadelphia Union 0
Red Cards
0
0
FC Cincinnati 0
Philadelphia Union 0

Match Events

45' 🔄 ↓ Samuel Mawuena Gidi ↑Evander
HT
↓ Benjamin Bender ↑Jesus Bueno 🔄 60'
↓ Ezekiel Kwame Alladoh ↑Cavan Sullivan 🔄 60'
64' 🔄 ↓ Tom Barlow ↑Ayoub Jabbari
64' 🔄 ↓ Kenji Mboma Dem ↑Ender Jesús Echenique Peña
70' ⚽ Ayoub Jabbari
↓ Indiana Vassilev ↑Agustin Anello 🔄 74'
80' 🔄 ↓ Teenage Hadebe ↑Alvas Powell
88' 🔄 ↓ Kevin Denkey ↑Tah Anunga
↓ Jovan Lukic ↑Malik Jakupovic 🔄 90'
FT

Player Cards

Our take on every player in this match

FC Cincinnati

Goalkeepers
Roman Celentano
OCTOPUS
OCTOPUS
6
Saves
6
Saves
0
Conceded
100%
Save %
Defenders
Kyle Smith
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Nick Hagglund
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Teenage Hadebe
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
10
Late Mins
10
Late Mins
80
Total Mins
80
Entry
Midfielders
Kenji Mboma Dem
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
64
Total Mins
64
Entry
Samuel Gidi
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
46
Total Mins
45
Entry
Obinna Nwobodo
MAGNET
MAGNET
69
Activity
69
Activity
59
Passes
10
Duels
Bryan Ramírez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Pavel Bucha
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Forwards
Tom Barlow
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
64
Total Mins
64
Entry
Kévin Denkey
NPC
NPC
88
Minutes
88
Minutes
12%
Pass Acc
6.3
Rating
BENCH
Evan Louro
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
A. Chirila
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Alvas Powell
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
10
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Brian Anunga
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
2
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Evander
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
2
Shots
2
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
José Martínez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Gerardo Valenzuela
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Ender Echenique
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
26
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Ayoub Jabbari
SNIPER
SNIPER
100%
Conversion
100%
Conversion
1
Goals
1
Shots

Philadelphia Union

Goalkeepers
Andre Blake
PROVOCATEUR
PROVOCATEUR
1
Fouls Won
1
Fouls Won
1
Duels Won
0
Pens Won
Defenders
Francis Westfield
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
1
Shots
1
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Neil Pierre
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
1
Shots
1
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Nathan Harriel
PROVOCATEUR
PROVOCATEUR
3
Fouls Won
3
Fouls Won
7
Duels Won
0
Pens Won
Kai Wagner
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
4
Key Passes
4
Key Passes
0
Assists
40%
Pass Acc
Midfielders
Quinn Sullivan
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
3
Shots
3
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Indiana Vassilev
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
74
Total Mins
74
Entry
Jovan Lukić
NPC
NPC
90
Minutes
90
Minutes
37%
Pass Acc
6.3
Rating
Benjamin Bender
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
2
Shots
2
Shots
0
Goals
0
On Target
Forwards
Ezekiel Alladoh
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
60
Total Mins
60
Entry
Bruno Damiani
MAGNET
MAGNET
51
Activity
51
Activity
33
Passes
18
Duels
BENCH
Andrew Rick
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
F. Sundstrom
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Geiner Martínez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Jordan Griffin
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Cavan Sullivan
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
30
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Jeremy Rafanello
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Jesús Bueno
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
30
Total Mins
Started
Entry
M. Jakupovic
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Augustin Anello
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
16
Total Mins
Started
Entry

Head to Head

Date Home Score Away Competition Venue
09/09/2026 Philadelphia Union 5 - 0 FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer Subaru Park
08/30/2025 FC Cincinnati 0 - 1 Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer TQL Stadium
03/02/2025 Philadelphia Union 4 - 1 FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer Subaru Park
02/07/2025 FC Cincinnati 4 - 1 Philadelphia Union Friendlies Clubs Joe DiMaggio Sports Complex
10/20/2024 Philadelphia Union 1 - 2 FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer Subaru Park
08/13/2024 FC Cincinnati 2 - 4 Philadelphia Union Leagues Cup TQL Stadium
06/19/2024 FC Cincinnati 4 - 3 Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer TQL Stadium
02/09/2024 FC Cincinnati 4 - 3 Philadelphia Union Friendlies Clubs Joe DiMaggio Sports Complex
11/26/2023 FC Cincinnati 1 - 0 Philadelphia Union Major League Soccer TQL Stadium
09/16/2023 Philadelphia Union 2 - 2 FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer Subaru Park
09/09/2026
Major League Soccer Subaru Park
08/30/2025
Major League Soccer TQL Stadium
03/02/2025
Major League Soccer Subaru Park
02/07/2025
Friendlies Clubs Joe DiMaggio Sports Complex
10/20/2024
Major League Soccer Subaru Park
08/13/2024
Leagues Cup TQL Stadium
06/19/2024
Major League Soccer TQL Stadium
02/09/2024
Friendlies Clubs Joe DiMaggio Sports Complex
11/26/2023
Major League Soccer TQL Stadium
09/16/2023
Major League Soccer Subaru Park
FC Cincinnati Win
Philadelphia Union Win
Draw

League Standings

Pos Team P Pts GF GA GD Form
1 Nashville SC 26 57 51 18 +33 DNashville SC 0 - 0 Philadelphia Union (29-10-2026)WCF Montreal 0 - 2 Nashville SC (24-10-2026)WNashville SC 2 - 0 Toronto FC (27-09-2026)WNashville SC 3 - 0 Chicago Fire (20-09-2026)DInter Miami 2 - 2 Nashville SC (12-09-2026)
2 New England Revolution 26 55 50 30 +20 WNew England Revolution 3 - 2 New York Red Bulls (28-10-2026)WPhiladelphia Union 1 - 2 New England Revolution (24-10-2026)WNew England Revolution 1 - 0 Chicago Fire (17-10-2026)WFC Cincinnati 2 - 3 New England Revolution (14-10-2026)WNew England Revolution 4 - 2 Orlando City SC (19-09-2026)
3 Inter Miami 26 45 64 46 +18 DInter Miami 2 - 2 FC Cincinnati (28-10-2026)LNew York Red Bulls 2 - 0 Inter Miami (24-10-2026)WAtlanta United FC 1 - 3 Inter Miami (17-10-2026)WInter Miami 2 - 0 New York City FC (14-10-2026)WInter Miami 4 - 0 DC United (10-10-2026)
4 Charlotte 27 45 54 38 +16 WCharlotte 4 - 0 Orlando City SC (31-10-2026)WCharlotte 4 - 0 CF Montreal (28-10-2026)DPhiladelphia Union 2 - 2 Charlotte (17-10-2026)LColumbus Crew 3 - 1 Charlotte (14-10-2026)LCharlotte 0 - 1 Chicago Fire (26-09-2026)
5 Chicago Fire 27 42 44 42 +2 DChicago Fire 2 - 2 Orlando City SC (29-10-2026)WAtlanta United FC 2 - 3 Chicago Fire (24-10-2026)LNew England Revolution 1 - 0 Chicago Fire (17-10-2026)LChicago Fire 1 - 3 Philadelphia Union (15-10-2026)WChicago Fire 2 - 1 New York City FC (10-10-2026)
6 Philadelphia Union 26 34 49 44 +5 DNashville SC 0 - 0 Philadelphia Union (29-10-2026)LPhiladelphia Union 1 - 2 New England Revolution (24-10-2026)DPhiladelphia Union 2 - 2 Charlotte (17-10-2026)WChicago Fire 1 - 3 Philadelphia Union (15-10-2026)WPhiladelphia Union 4 - 2 Orlando City SC (26-09-2026)
7 Toronto FC 26 34 40 45 -5 WToronto FC 2 - 1 DC United (28-10-2026)LColumbus Crew 4 - 2 Toronto FC (24-10-2026)WNew York Red Bulls 0 - 2 Toronto FC (17-10-2026)DToronto FC 3 - 3 Orlando City SC (14-10-2026)WToronto FC 2 - 1 CF Montreal (10-10-2026)
8 FC Cincinnati 26 34 52 61 -9 DInter Miami 2 - 2 FC Cincinnati (28-10-2026)WDC United 0 - 2 FC Cincinnati (24-10-2026)WFC Cincinnati 2 - 1 DC United (21-10-2026)LFC Cincinnati 0 - 2 Columbus Crew (18-10-2026)LFC Cincinnati 2 - 3 New England Revolution (14-10-2026)
9 Orlando City SC 27 33 52 67 -15 LCharlotte 4 - 0 Orlando City SC (31-10-2026)DChicago Fire 2 - 2 Orlando City SC (29-10-2026)DOrlando City SC 2 - 2 New York City FC (24-10-2026)WOrlando City SC 4 - 1 DC United (17-10-2026)DToronto FC 3 - 3 Orlando City SC (14-10-2026)
10 New York Red Bulls 26 32 37 50 -13 LNew England Revolution 3 - 2 New York Red Bulls (28-10-2026)WNew York Red Bulls 2 - 0 Inter Miami (24-10-2026)LNew York Red Bulls 0 - 2 Toronto FC (17-10-2026)LDC United 2 - 1 New York Red Bulls (14-10-2026)WNew York City FC 0 - 1 New York Red Bulls (18-09-2026)
11 Columbus Crew 26 31 39 40 -1 WColumbus Crew 4 - 2 Toronto FC (24-10-2026)WFC Cincinnati 0 - 2 Columbus Crew (18-10-2026)WColumbus Crew 3 - 1 Charlotte (14-10-2026)LOrlando City SC 3 - 2 Columbus Crew (10-10-2026)WColumbus Crew 2 - 1 Inter Miami (27-09-2026)
12 New York City FC 26 29 39 38 +1 WNew York City FC 2 - 1 Atlanta United FC (28-10-2026)DOrlando City SC 2 - 2 New York City FC (24-10-2026)LInter Miami 2 - 0 New York City FC (14-10-2026)LChicago Fire 2 - 1 New York City FC (10-10-2026)DAtlanta United FC 2 - 2 New York City FC (26-09-2026)
13 DC United 26 29 34 47 -13 LToronto FC 2 - 1 DC United (28-10-2026)LDC United 0 - 2 FC Cincinnati (24-10-2026)LFC Cincinnati 2 - 1 DC United (21-10-2026)LOrlando City SC 4 - 1 DC United (17-10-2026)WDC United 2 - 1 New York Red Bulls (14-10-2026)
14 CF Montreal 27 22 31 55 -24 LCharlotte 4 - 0 CF Montreal (28-10-2026)LCF Montreal 0 - 2 Nashville SC (24-10-2026)LCF Montreal 0 - 3 Atlanta United FC (14-10-2026)LToronto FC 2 - 1 CF Montreal (10-10-2026)WCF Montreal 3 - 1 FC Cincinnati (26-09-2026)
15 Atlanta United FC 26 21 32 47 -15 LNew York City FC 2 - 1 Atlanta United FC (28-10-2026)LAtlanta United FC 2 - 3 Chicago Fire (24-10-2026)LAtlanta United FC 1 - 3 Inter Miami (17-10-2026)WCF Montreal 0 - 3 Atlanta United FC (14-10-2026)LAtlanta United FC 1 - 3 FC Cincinnati (10-10-2026)

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