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Futmetrix Verdict
69
FT
Wed, Oct 28
New York City FC
2-1
Atlanta United FC
⚡ Intensity 76
⚖️ Balance 42
🏆 Stakes 14
🎲 Upset 0
Atlanta leveled; Traoré had the last word

Win Probability

  • New York City FC 53%
  • Draw 24%
  • Atlanta United FC 23%

Futmetrix AI estimate

One late answer after another at Citi Field

A last-gasp winner turned a late equalizer into a damaging regular-season defeat and delivered the match’s decisive jolt.

Pressure, then a reprieve

Atlanta came out on the front foot, and the first major twist arrived in the 23rd minute. At Citi Field, Atlanta United FC thought Breel Embolo had struck first, only for VAR to cancel the goal. That reprieve did not quiet the visitors: they edged possession with 54% and launched 19 shots, while New York City FC managed 11. Yet the target count finished level at six apiece, and the keepers combined for nine saves. The Intensity grew through pressure rather than a steady stream of clean chances. NYCFC stayed compact and cleared danger 36 times, almost twice Atlanta’s 17. By the break, Atlanta had the volume and territory; the hosts had survived the scare and kept the contest within reach. The numbers showed initiative, not control, and left the next opening hanging in the air.

The lead that would not hold

NYCFC finally broke through in the 70th minute, when Nicolás Fernández Mercau scored to put the hosts ahead. It was a sharp answer to Atlanta’s sustained pressure, but hardly a sign that the visitors had gone away. Atlanta had produced 19 attempts and 2.07 expected goals; NYCFC finished with 11 shots and 1.20. The Balance remained precarious: Atlanta kept finding routes into the final third and forcing the home defense to work. Then came the decisive swing in momentum. Embolo found the net in the 88th minute to make it 1-1, after his earlier strike had been ruled out. NYCFC’s lead lasted only eighteen minutes, and Atlanta had renewed hope. The crowd had barely absorbed the equalizer before the final surge began. The tie suddenly felt wide open.

A winner in stoppage time

Atlanta’s equalizer looked like it had rescued a point. Instead, at 90+5, substitute Bénie Adama Traoré finished Kevin O'Toole’s assist and sent Citi Field into celebration. Traoré had only just entered the match, making the timing sharper still: a fresh attacker punished a defense that had just clawed back to level. New York City FC won 2-1 with one decisive answer to Atlanta’s superior shot volume, not through a spell of territorial control. The visitors had edged possession, 54% to 46%, but could not protect the draw. The Stakes mattered beyond the final minutes: NYCFC sat 12th and Atlanta 14th in the regular-season table, making these points valuable in a lower-half contest. For the hosts, a late winner brings belief; for Atlanta, all that pressure is hard to celebrate.

Key Questions

How did VAR change this match?

VAR ruled out Breel Embolo’s 23rd-minute goal, denying Atlanta the opener; he later scored a valid equalizer in the 88th.

How dramatic was the late winner by Nicolás Fernández Mercau?

It was not Fernández Mercau: he scored in the 70th. Substitute Bénie Adama Traoré won it at 90+5.

Did New York City FC deserve the late equalizer?

NYCFC did not score a late equalizer; Atlanta did. Traoré supplied NYCFC’s 90+5 winner after the 88th-minute tie.

What is the Futmetrix Score?

The Futmetrix Score is our 0-100 verdict on how entertaining a match is. We look at intensity, balance, stakes, and star quality to tell you if it's worth your time.

Match Statistics

Possession
46%
54%
New York City FC 46%
Atlanta United FC 54%
Shots
11
19
New York City FC 11
Atlanta United FC 19
Shots on Target
6
6
New York City FC 6
Atlanta United FC 6
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
2.07
New York City FC 1.20
Atlanta United FC 2.07
Passes
381
450
New York City FC 381
Atlanta United FC 450
Corners
3
3
New York City FC 3
Atlanta United FC 3
Fouls
13
14
New York City FC 13
Atlanta United FC 14
Yellow Cards
2
4
New York City FC 2
Atlanta United FC 4
Red Cards
0
0
New York City FC 0
Atlanta United FC 0

Match Events

7' 🟨 Tayvon Gray
Mauricio Amaro 🟨 11'
Breel Embolo • 23'
28' 🔄 ↓ Alonso Martinez ↑Talles Magno
Paulo Díaz 🟨 34'
43' 🟨 Talles Magno
HT
64' 🔄 ↓ Aiden O'Neill ↑Keaton Parks
64' 🔄 ↓ Agustin Ojeda ↑Malachi Jones
Tristan Muyumba 🟨 68'
↓ Tristan Muyumba ↑Fafà Picault 🔄 74'
Matthew Edwards 🟨 81'
↓ Matthew Edwards ↑Elías Báez 🔄 83'
Breel Embolo ⚽ 88'
90' 🔄 ↓ Hannes Wolf ↑Bénie Adama Traoré
90'+5 ⚽ Bénie Adama Traoré (Kevin O'Toole)
FT

Player Cards

Our take on every player in this match

New York City FC

Goalkeepers
Matthew Freese
OCTOPUS
OCTOPUS
5
Saves
5
Saves
0
Conceded
100%
Save %
Defenders
Tayvon Gray
WALL
WALL
0
Dribbled Past
0
Dribbled Past
2
Tackles
55%
Duel Win %
Thiago Martins
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
1
Shots
1
Shots
0
Goals
0
On Target
James Sands
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Kevin O'Toole
WALL
WALL
0
Dribbled Past
0
Dribbled Past
7
Tackles
73%
Duel Win %
Midfielders
Aiden O'Neill
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
64
Total Mins
64
Entry
Andrés Perea
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
2
Shots
2
Shots
0
Goals
1
On Target
Axel Ojeda
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
64
Total Mins
64
Entry
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
FINISHER
FINISHER
1
Goals
1
Goals
3
Shots
8.2
Rating
Hannes Wolf
NPC
NPC
90
Minutes
90
Minutes
21%
Pass Acc
6.6
Rating
Forwards
Adrián Martínez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
28
Total Mins
28
Entry
BENCH
Tomás Romero
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Matt Miazga
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Raul Gustavo
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Keaton Parks
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
26
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Jonathan Shore
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Malachi Jones
DRIBBLER
DRIBBLER
3
Dribbles
3
Dribbles
3
Attempts
100%
Success %
Luighi
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Talles Magno
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
62
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Bénie Traoré
CLUTCH HERO
CLUTCH HERO
90
Goal Time
90
Goal Time
Goal
Impact
0
Rating

Atlanta United FC

Goalkeepers
Lucas Hoyos
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Defenders
Tomás Jacob
WALL
WALL
0
Dribbled Past
0
Dribbled Past
4
Tackles
64%
Duel Win %
Paulo Díaz
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Javier Alonso
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
2
Key Passes
2
Key Passes
0
Assists
53%
Pass Acc
Matthew Edwards
STORMTROOPER
STORMTROOPER
1
Shots
1
Shots
0
Goals
0
On Target
Midfielders
Mauricio Amaro
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
90
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Aleksey Miranchuk
DRIBBLER
DRIBBLER
5
Dribbles
5
Dribbles
6
Attempts
83%
Success %
Giuliano Galoppo
SWEEPER
SWEEPER
5
Cleanups
5
Cleanups
3
Interceptions
2
Blocks
Tristan Muyumba
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
74
Total Mins
74
Entry
Miguel Almirón
ARCHITECT
ARCHITECT
5
Key Passes
5
Key Passes
0
Assists
35%
Pass Acc
Forwards
Breel Embolo
CLUTCH HERO
CLUTCH HERO
88
Goal Time
88
Goal Time
Goal
Impact
8.1
Rating
BENCH
Jayden Hibbert
SPECTATOR
SPECTATOR
0
Saves
0
Saves
0
Conceded
0
Minutes
Elías Báez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
7
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Cooper Sanchez
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Adrian Gill
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Ajani Fortune
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Luke Brennan
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Steven Alzate
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Sergio Santos
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
0
Total Mins
Started
Entry
Fafà Picault
LATE SHIFT
LATE SHIFT
15
Late Mins
15
Late Mins
16
Total Mins
Started
Entry

Head to Head

Date Home Score Away Competition Venue
09/26/2026 Atlanta United FC 2 - 2 New York City FC Major League Soccer Atlanta Stadium
06/12/2025 New York City FC 4 - 0 Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer Yankee Stadium
03/29/2025 Atlanta United FC 4 - 3 New York City FC Major League Soccer Mercedes-Benz Stadium
07/17/2024 Atlanta United FC 2 - 2 New York City FC Major League Soccer Mercedes-Benz Stadium
04/06/2024 New York City FC 1 - 1 Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer Citi Field
06/21/2023 Atlanta United FC 2 - 2 New York City FC Major League Soccer Mercedes-Benz Stadium
04/08/2023 New York City FC 1 - 1 Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer Yankee Stadium
10/09/2022 Atlanta United FC 1 - 2 New York City FC Major League Soccer Mercedes-Benz Stadium
07/03/2022 New York City FC 2 - 2 Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer Yankee Stadium
11/21/2021 New York City FC 2 - 0 Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer Yankee Stadium
09/26/2026
Major League Soccer Atlanta Stadium
06/12/2025
Major League Soccer Yankee Stadium
03/29/2025
Major League Soccer Mercedes-Benz Stadium
07/17/2024
Major League Soccer Mercedes-Benz Stadium
04/06/2024
Major League Soccer Citi Field
06/21/2023
Major League Soccer Mercedes-Benz Stadium
04/08/2023
Major League Soccer Yankee Stadium
10/09/2022
Major League Soccer Mercedes-Benz Stadium
07/03/2022
Major League Soccer Yankee Stadium
11/21/2021
Major League Soccer Yankee Stadium
New York City FC Win
Atlanta United FC Win
Draw

League Standings

Pos Team P Pts GF GA GD Form
1 Nashville SC 25 56 51 18 +33 WCF Montreal 0 - 2 Nashville SC (24-10-2026)WNashville SC 2 - 0 Toronto FC (27-09-2026)WNashville SC 3 - 0 Chicago Fire (20-09-2026)DInter Miami 2 - 2 Nashville SC (12-09-2026)LToronto FC 2 - 1 Nashville SC (09-09-2026)
2 New England Revolution 26 55 50 30 +20 WNew England Revolution 3 - 2 New York Red Bulls (28-10-2026)WPhiladelphia Union 1 - 2 New England Revolution (24-10-2026)WNew England Revolution 1 - 0 Chicago Fire (17-10-2026)WFC Cincinnati 2 - 3 New England Revolution (14-10-2026)WNew England Revolution 4 - 2 Orlando City SC (19-09-2026)
3 Inter Miami 26 45 64 46 +18 DInter Miami 2 - 2 FC Cincinnati (28-10-2026)LNew York Red Bulls 2 - 0 Inter Miami (24-10-2026)WAtlanta United FC 1 - 3 Inter Miami (17-10-2026)WInter Miami 2 - 0 New York City FC (14-10-2026)WInter Miami 4 - 0 DC United (10-10-2026)
4 Charlotte 26 42 50 38 +12 WCharlotte 4 - 0 CF Montreal (28-10-2026)DPhiladelphia Union 2 - 2 Charlotte (17-10-2026)LColumbus Crew 3 - 1 Charlotte (14-10-2026)LCharlotte 0 - 1 Chicago Fire (26-09-2026)WDC United 1 - 2 Charlotte (19-09-2026)
5 Chicago Fire 26 41 42 40 +2 WAtlanta United FC 2 - 3 Chicago Fire (24-10-2026)LNew England Revolution 1 - 0 Chicago Fire (17-10-2026)LChicago Fire 1 - 3 Philadelphia Union (15-10-2026)WChicago Fire 2 - 1 New York City FC (10-10-2026)WCharlotte 0 - 1 Chicago Fire (26-09-2026)
6 Toronto FC 26 34 40 45 -5 WToronto FC 2 - 1 DC United (28-10-2026)LColumbus Crew 4 - 2 Toronto FC (24-10-2026)WNew York Red Bulls 0 - 2 Toronto FC (17-10-2026)DToronto FC 3 - 3 Orlando City SC (14-10-2026)WToronto FC 2 - 1 CF Montreal (10-10-2026)
7 FC Cincinnati 26 34 52 61 -9 DInter Miami 2 - 2 FC Cincinnati (28-10-2026)WDC United 0 - 2 FC Cincinnati (24-10-2026)WFC Cincinnati 2 - 1 DC United (21-10-2026)LFC Cincinnati 0 - 2 Columbus Crew (18-10-2026)LFC Cincinnati 2 - 3 New England Revolution (14-10-2026)
8 Philadelphia Union 25 33 49 44 +5 LPhiladelphia Union 1 - 2 New England Revolution (24-10-2026)DPhiladelphia Union 2 - 2 Charlotte (17-10-2026)WChicago Fire 1 - 3 Philadelphia Union (15-10-2026)WPhiladelphia Union 4 - 2 Orlando City SC (26-09-2026)WPhiladelphia Union 5 - 0 FC Cincinnati (09-09-2026)
9 Orlando City SC 25 32 50 61 -11 DOrlando City SC 2 - 2 New York City FC (24-10-2026)WOrlando City SC 4 - 1 DC United (17-10-2026)DToronto FC 3 - 3 Orlando City SC (14-10-2026)WOrlando City SC 3 - 2 Columbus Crew (10-10-2026)LPhiladelphia Union 4 - 2 Orlando City SC (26-09-2026)
10 New York Red Bulls 26 32 37 50 -13 LNew England Revolution 3 - 2 New York Red Bulls (28-10-2026)WNew York Red Bulls 2 - 0 Inter Miami (24-10-2026)LNew York Red Bulls 0 - 2 Toronto FC (17-10-2026)LDC United 2 - 1 New York Red Bulls (14-10-2026)WNew York City FC 0 - 1 New York Red Bulls (18-09-2026)
11 Columbus Crew 26 31 39 40 -1 WColumbus Crew 4 - 2 Toronto FC (24-10-2026)WFC Cincinnati 0 - 2 Columbus Crew (18-10-2026)WColumbus Crew 3 - 1 Charlotte (14-10-2026)LOrlando City SC 3 - 2 Columbus Crew (10-10-2026)WColumbus Crew 2 - 1 Inter Miami (27-09-2026)
12 New York City FC 26 29 39 38 +1 WNew York City FC 2 - 1 Atlanta United FC (28-10-2026)DOrlando City SC 2 - 2 New York City FC (24-10-2026)LInter Miami 2 - 0 New York City FC (14-10-2026)LChicago Fire 2 - 1 New York City FC (10-10-2026)DAtlanta United FC 2 - 2 New York City FC (26-09-2026)
13 DC United 26 29 34 47 -13 LToronto FC 2 - 1 DC United (28-10-2026)LDC United 0 - 2 FC Cincinnati (24-10-2026)LFC Cincinnati 2 - 1 DC United (21-10-2026)LOrlando City SC 4 - 1 DC United (17-10-2026)WDC United 2 - 1 New York Red Bulls (14-10-2026)
14 CF Montreal 27 22 31 55 -24 LCharlotte 4 - 0 CF Montreal (28-10-2026)LCF Montreal 0 - 2 Nashville SC (24-10-2026)LCF Montreal 0 - 3 Atlanta United FC (14-10-2026)LToronto FC 2 - 1 CF Montreal (10-10-2026)WCF Montreal 3 - 1 FC Cincinnati (26-09-2026)
15 Atlanta United FC 26 21 32 47 -15 LNew York City FC 2 - 1 Atlanta United FC (28-10-2026)LAtlanta United FC 2 - 3 Chicago Fire (24-10-2026)LAtlanta United FC 1 - 3 Inter Miami (17-10-2026)WCF Montreal 0 - 3 Atlanta United FC (14-10-2026)LAtlanta United FC 1 - 3 FC Cincinnati (10-10-2026)

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